|North Carolina||Wake Forest|
|Points per game||80.1||75.6|
|Points per possession||1.09||1.06|
|Field Goal %||47.4%||45.1%|
|Offensive Reb Rate||37.4%||34.6%|
|Defensive Reb Rate||68.5%||73.6%|
|KenPom win probability||UNC 64%|
Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet
Somewhat surprisingly these two teams have some really similar numbers, besides the record of course. Both teams are solid on the defensive end and do a great job limiting opposing teams eFG%. Both teams also struggle at the free throw line. UNC is 332nd from the free throw line shooting 62.4%. Wake Forest is just three spots behind at 61.9%. And like UNC, the Demon Deacons get to the line as a decent clip. Taking all of that into consideration for a conference opener on Sunday night, there is at least a decent chance this is game is going to be weird, ugly and an absolute toss-up.
A couple of numbers that really jump out concerning Wake Forest's defense is offensive rebounding rate allowed and opponent's three point shooting. Wake is 19th nationally limiting opponent to just 26.4% on offensive rebounds while opponents are shooting just 28.1% from three against the Demon Deacons. The rebounding number is probably a bigger concern for UNC than the three point shooting defense simply because that is not a focal point of the Tar Heel offense.
The caveat with Wake's numbers is their schedule has been really weak. KenPom has Wake's non-conference strength of schedule at 314th versus 116th for UNC. The Demon Deacons have played five teams ranked in the 300s by KenPom with a fifth opponent ranked 260th. KenPom does adjust the efficiency numbers to account for the strength of the opponent but the point remains. Wake's 10-3 is not the same as UNC's 10-3. For the record, UNC and Wake also share two common opponents. Wake has wins over Richmond and UNC Greensboro by ten and eight points respectively.