Here is how UNC stacks up against the Miami Hurricanes.
|Points per game||79.1||63.5|
|Points per possession||1.08||1.02|
|Field Goal %||46.6%||42.4%|
|Offensive Reb Rate||38.4%||32.4%|
|Defensive Reb Rate||69.1%||71.8%|
|KenPom win probability||UNC 85%|
Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet
A few numbers here bear striking resemblance to Wake Forest. The overall ranking, offensive and defensive efficiencies all are very close to where Wake Forest was when the Heels lost to the Demon Deacons on Sunday. In addition, Miami does a great job controlling the defensive glass and is not disposed to fouling opposing teams with Miami sporting the 8th best defensive free throw rate at 26.9%
That makes this a fairly interesting match-up. UNC is coming of one of their worst games of the season in terms of free throw rate. The Heels had only 11 free throw attempts in the game and a 14.7% free throw rate against Wake Forest. Given Roy Williams indicating some emphasis on physical interior play this will be UNC focusing on getting the line versus a team that doesn't foul.
Also of note is Miami being the fourth worst team in the country in terms of tempo. The Hurricanes average 12 fewer possession per game than UNC does. That tends to help the defensive numbers because fewer possession means fewer opportunities to score. For a Tar Heel offense that tends to lack efficiency on the offensive end this could be an issue. Since Miami is opting to slow the game down, it would not be surprising to see the Tar Heels continue to use the scramble to force turnovers or get Miami into its offense quicker. Given that Miami has only utilized eight players this season, the slower tempo is predictable and UNC speeding the game up will carry certain advantages.
On the season Miami has five players with 20 or more three point attempts, two of those players are 40% or better with a third at 37%.