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The numbers, such as they are.
North Carolina | Miami | |
Record | 4-4 | 5-3 |
ACC Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
AP Poll Rank | N/R | N/R |
Points Per Game | 37.4 | 31.3 |
Total TDs | 41 | 32 |
Total Offense Per Game | 442.5 | 429.8 |
Total Offense Per Play | 5.7 | 7.9 |
Rushing Per Game | 145.6 | 187.4 |
Rushing Per Att | 3.9 | 5.6 |
Passing Per Game | 296.9 | 242.4 |
Passing Per Att | 7.4 | 8.5 |
Fumbles Lost | 4 | 7 |
Interceptions | 10 | 9 |
3rd Down Conv. | 43.2% | 28.4% |
4th Down Conv. | 50.0% | 69.2% |
Red Zone Conv. | 91.1% | 80.6% |
Field Goals | 5-10 | 10-13 |
Points Allowed Per Game | 41.3 | 22.1 |
Total Defense Per Game | 512.8 | 319.3 |
Total Defense Per Play | 6.4 | 4.5 |
Rushing Per Game | 210.6 | 147.6 |
Rushing Per Att | 4.7 | 3.6 |
Passing Per Game | 302.1 | 171.6 |
Passing Per Att | 8.5 | 5.6 |
Fumbles Recovered | 7 | 10 |
Interceptions | 11 | 7 |
Sacks | 13.0 | 18.0 |
Tackles for Loss | 49.0 | 38.0 |
3rd Down Conv. | 49.6% | 39.0% |
4th Down Conv. | 80.0% | 60.0% |
Red Zone Conv. | 85.7% | 14.8% |
Numbers wise, this may be one of the more complete teams UNC has faced this season. The Hurricanes are ranked 8th in offensive yards per play at 6.97 per game. That is just behind Georgia Tech and probably means UNC's defense is in for a gashing. Much of that will come at the hands of running back Duke Johnson. Johnson is averaging 129 yards per game and 7.45 yards per rushing attempt. Against Virginia Tech's fairly decent run defense, Johnson ran for over 200 yards. Given UNC's defensive struggles, Johnson is going to get his and then some. The only oddity in Miami's numbers is a 25% conversion rate on third down. That seems contradictory to having a running back like Johnson who should be able to pick up necessary yards in that situation. UNC's troubles on third down stops are well documented which makes this a weakness vs weakness area of the game.
Miami's has a stout defense both in scoring defense and total defense. Miami is holding teams to 22.1 points per game and 4.46 yards per play. That is good enough for ninth nationally on the latter and 35th on the former. The caliber of Miami's defense will make UNC winning a "whoever has the ball last" kind of game. Miami is likely going to be able to stop UNC more often than the Heels stop them putting UNC behind schedule in terms of points.