Triangle Teams by the Numbers

Alternate title: Scheduling is everything.

It has been 20 years since the Triangle has seen this level of success from its ACC football teams. Duke has strung together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since the Steve Spurrier teams of the late 1980s, and is going to three straight bowl games for the first time ever in its history. After a blip in 2013, NC State has returned for its 4th winning record and bowl appearance in the last five years. And with a win in a bowl game, UNC will post its 7th straight winning season. Plus, for the first time since 1994, Carolina, Duke, and NC State are going to bowl games in the same season.

It is interesting, however, to take a look at each team's 2014 schedule to see how the teams achieved their records and speculate as to how each team's season might have played out with another team's schedule. First, let's take a look at UNC's 2014 schedule:

UNC's schedule was pretty stout. All but one of Carolina's opponents finished .500 or above, and the only one who did not was Virginia at 5-7. Even UNC's FCS opponent, Liberty, won its conference and has already won a playoff game. Ten of the Tar Heels' opponents are bowl eligible plus Liberty qualified for the FCS playoffs. That's 11 of 12 headed for the postseason.

Next let's examine State's schedule:

There was some talk about the Wolfpack's cupcake schedule that allowed State to start 4-0, but Georgia Southern turned out to be pretty good and that makes it a great win for the Pack. State fell victim to the top-heavy Atlantic Division with losses to Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville, but they also benefited from the 98-lb. weaklings Syracuse and Wake Forest. Six of State's opponents are headed for bowls, and Georgia Southern and Old Dominion would be bowl-eligible except they are still in FBS transition and therefore ineligible for the postseason. Still, that's 8 of 12 at .500 or above.

Finally, let's look at Duke:

Duke's ascension from laughingstock to consistent winner has been nothing short of amazing, but you certainly have to acknowledge that this year in particular they were the beneficiary of an extraordinarily easy schedule. Duke's four non-conference opponents were a combined 10-37 (as opposed to 31-17 for UNC and 25-22 for State). In addition, there were only 3 out of 14 ACC teams who did not qualify for a bowl, and Duke played all three of them. The Blue Devils' Atlantic crossover games were last place Wake and Syracuse (whereas UNC had 9-win Clemson and State, and State's Coastal crossovers were UNC and 10-win Georgia Tech). Duke only faced 5 teams out of 12 that were .500 or above, all of which were their Coastal opponents.

Now let's look at the combined records of the teams each team defeated:

That's a jaw-dropping statistic as it relates to Duke's schedule. The Blue Devils went 3-3 within the Coastal Division, and one of those wins was over 10-2 Georgia Tech. But Duke's other six wins were against teams that were 16-55. Clearly Duke can only play the schedule in front of them but holy cow that's putrid, and out of nine wins the Devils only defeated two teams at .500 or above. Likewise State also only beat three teams at or above .500, so the Pack pretty much did what it was expected to do. There were no really big wins (at least in terms of record, because UNC finished 6-6), but State didn't lose any games they shouldn't have.

That leaves Carolina as the head-scratcher of the bunch, The Heels showed they could play with good teams - sometimes - and picked up a couple of nice wins along the way,as five of Carolina's six wins were against teams at or above .500. On the other hand, four of UNC's losses could be classified as stinkers - ECU, Virginia Tech, Miami, and NC State. Carolina's six wins are of good quality, and none of their losses are bad losses in terms of who they lost to, but more how they lost.

So there is one final parlor game to play - the "what if" game. What if State had played Duke's schedule? There are some common links to examine. State had four non-conference wins just like the Devils, and played four common ACC foes; State had wins over Wake and Syracuse just like Duke. The Pack beat UNC but lost to Georgia Tech. Given how the season played out, that would make State 7-1 against the common portion of the schedule with Duke. Assuming State could have managed to go 2-2 against the rest of the Coastal, it is logical to think the Pack could have also reached 9 wins against that slate.

And what if UNC played Duke's schedule? If Carolina traded ECU and Notre Dame for Tulane and Kansas? And traded State and Clemson for Wake and Syracuse? UNC already went 4-2 against the Coastal Division, and with wins against a pair of 3-9 teams, UNC might have been 6-2 and playing in Charlotte. Trading two tough non-conference road games for another pair of 3-9 teams, and UNC might have been looking at 10-2. Even with a slip-up somewhere else, Carolina could have been 9-3 against Duke's schedule and have broken through the 8-win glass ceiling.

Then again, given UNC's wild inconsistency, there is no guarantee that the Heels could have put up more than eight wins this season. But it does add some perspective when pundits talk about UNC's "disappointing" season to realize the level of their competition versus their neighbors that "met or exceeded expectations" in 2014.