A statistical look at UNC's Monday match-up with Florida State
|Points per game||75.8||71.0|
|Points per possession||1.07||1.06|
|Field Goal %||45.5%||46.7%|
|Offensive Reb Rate||38.5%||35.9%|
|Defensive Reb Rate||68.5%||64.6%|
|KenPom win probability||FSU 60%|
Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet
FSU has one of the oddest stat combinations I have seen this season. On one hand the Seminoles are holding teams to 41.7% shooting on two pointers and 32.3% on threes. That first number is seventh nationally. Since FSU is forcing so many missed shots that would mean there are plenty of defensive rebounds to be had. Unfortunately for FSU they do a really poor job of collecting them. FSU opponents grab offensive rebounds at a rate of 35.4% which is 313th. So despite forcing teams to generally shoot poorly, FSU doesn't collect the rebounds.
FSU's defensive rebounding issues and the Seminoles' 21.5% turnover rate are two positives for UNC in the overall numbers comparison here. In the past three games UNC opponents are averaging 15.6 turnovers per game with Pitt's 19.6% turnover rate being the lowest. During those three games the Tar Heels have averaged 10 steals per game. Forcing turnovers have been crucial in accelerating the tempo of the game as evidenced by UNC getting to 71 possessions against a Pitt team with one of the slower tempos in the ACC. If UNC can force turnovers and rebound well against FSU, the recent streak of success has a good chance at continuing.
Standing in the way of that is the fact Florida State has a lot of size as in the Seminoles have two players who are over seven feet to go along with multiple in the 6-7 to 6-9 range. FSU is #2 in the country in average height which makes the lack of defensive rebounding a curious thing. And in an odd twist, UNC will have played the #1 and #2 teams in effective height this season. Kentucky is first in that category.
The other concern for UNC is FSU's three point shooting. Now, the stats say FSU is so-so in this area but in the past two games in Tallahassee between these two teams FSU is 23-49 from three. The upside for UNC is none of the players who did most of the damage in those games will be playing on Monday. Still, the Seminoles have three players shooting 36% or better from three going against a UNC team that continues to hold teams at around 30% from beyond the arc.