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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Duke(Take Two)

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Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Let's look at the numbers for UNC-Duke again!

North Carolina Duke
Record 18-7 21-5
ACC Record 8-4 10-3
KenPom Rank 21st 3rd
Points per game 76.0 81.2
Points per possession 1.07 1.22
Offensive Efficiency(Rank) 110.9(60th) 126.3(1st)
Defensive Efficiency(Rank) 93.6(15th) 99.0(68th)
Tempo(Rank) 71.7(15th) 67.3(145th)
Offensive eFG% 48.9% 55.2%
Defensive eFG% 44.9% 48.6%
Field Goal % 45.8% 46.9%
3P FG% 31.9% 41.6%
Offensive Reb Rate 38.5% 33.7%
Defensive Reb Rate 68.7% 69.6%
TO Rate 17.4% 14.1%
FT Rate 44.4% 41.5%
KenPom win probability Duke 55%

Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet

The oddity about having a game postponed is it means doing a second preview which applies to the same game. Since the numbers have changed slightly since last week, here is the latest in the statistical match-up. Rather than repeat too much of what I wrote last week, check out the Tale of the Tape from last Wednesday.

The only notable change in the numbers from a week ago is UNC has improved its offensive ranking rising to 60th in offensive efficiency. The win probability also moved 3% in UNC's favor with Duke being given a 55% chance to win. KenPom is calling it a 79-78 game which will go 72 possessions.

The match-up is the same as it was last week with UNC needing to stop Duke's three point shooting and Duke needing to solve UNC on the interior. UNC leads the ACC in three point percentage defense and is #1 in offensive rebounding rate. Duke is #1 in three point shooting and FT% in ACC play. That latter number could be important since UNC is 13th in the ACC in defensive free throw rate. Opposing ACC teams are at 42% versus UNC and sending Duke to the line over and over is not a winning formula.