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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Duke

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Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The numbers for UNC-Duke Part II

North Carolina Duke
Record 23-7 23-7
ACC Record 13-4 12-5
KenPom Rank 23rd 8th
Points per game 76.2 79.3
Points per possession(raw) 1.08 1.20
Adj. Offensive Efficiency(Rank) 110.9(61st) 123.0(2nd)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency(Rank) 93.7(16th) 99.1(70th)
Tempo(Rank) 70.5(27th) 66.8(162nd)
Offensive eFG% 49.5% 54.3%
Defensive eFG% 45.8% 48.2%
Field Goal % 46.1% 46.4%
3P FG% 33.6% 39.5%
Offensive Reb Rate 38.5% 34.1%
Defensive Reb Rate 69.3% 68.5%
TO Rate 17.0% 14.6%
FT Rate 44.5% 39.6%
KenPom win probability Duke 73%

Stats sources: KenPom and Statsheet

These numbers haven't changed much since February 20th. Duke still boasts one of the most potent offenses in the country while UNC is a top 20 defensive team. On the flipside UNC's offense and Duke's defense can both be pretty mediocre at times. This is a classic strength-on-strength battle with the respective weaknesses being roughly the same.

The most important numbers on this chart are the matching 23-7 records and UNC's one game edge in ACC play. Regardless of what happens in this game, there is no one in their right mind who would have thought UNC and Duke would have matching 23-7 marks in early March after UNC started 1-4 in ACC play.