First round play in the Dean Dome Regional of the THB Countdown Tournament has finished and so far there is nothing but chalk. In addition to the results of the poll vote, I have included the results from simulating each match-up 20 times via SCACC Hoops' GameSim.
#1 1982 97% #8 2003 3%
GameSim Results
UNC (1982) has won 10 times (50.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (2003) has won 10 times (50.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1982): 67.3 - UNC (2003): 66.8, decided by less than 5 points 5 times(25.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
The simulation produce a surprising result with both teams winning ten games out of twenty. The 1982 did have one blowout over 20+ points and "won" the average score but according to the simulations the match-up would be even.
At any rate, #1 1982 breezes into the second round taking 97% of the vote.
#4 1994 58% #5 1983 42%
GameSim Results
UNC (1994) has won 9 times (45.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (1983) has won 11 times (55.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1994): 77.4 - UNC (1983): 76.6, decided by less 5 points 5 times(25.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 1 times (5.0%)
Given these two teams were seeded in a 4-5 match-up, the simulation got it right. It should be a fairly even match-up with the 1994 edging 1983 in average points but 1983 taking of 11 out of 20 games.
The voting was somewhat close with 1994 advancing with 58%.
#2 1984 97% #7 2014 3%
GameSim Results
UNC (1984) has won 17 times (85.0%), won by 20+ pts 5 times (25.0%)
UNC (2014) has won 3 times (15.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1984): 78.8 - UNC (2014): 67.8, decided by less than 5 points 4 times(20.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
When the bracket was released, 1984 was identified as a possible spoiler to take out the overall #1 seed 1982. The 84 Heels didn't disappoint in the simulation winning 17 of 20 games against 2014. A quarter of the wins were by 20 points or more and 1984 won by 11 points in average score.
Quite frankly the voting should have been 100% in favor of 1984 but 2014 picked up three votes. I am going to assume those people clicked the wrong team.
#3 1987 80% #6 1996 20%
GameSim Results
UNC (1987) has won 15 times (75.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (1996) has won 5 times (25.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1987): 82.1 - UNC (1996): 74.8, decided by less than 5 pts 4 times(20.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
Like the 1984 team, 1987 was utterly dominant in the simulations although with fewer 20+ point blowouts. Still an eight point advantage in average score with only one 20+ point win and just four games with a margin less than five would indicate 1987 was pretty consistently in control of those 15 wins.
The vote when 80% to 20% in favor of 1987 setting up an epic battle in the second round between freshman Kenny Smith and senior Kenny Smith.
Next week: The Tin Can Regional.
