The first round of the THB Tournament wraps up with more chalk in the Woollen Regional. Here are the poll results and simulation results each match-up 20 times thanks to our friends SCACC Hoops' GameSim.
#1 2005 97% #8 2013 3%
GameSim Results
UNC (2005) has won 17 times (85.0%), won by 20+ pts 4 times (20.0%)
UNC (2013) has won 3 times (15.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (2005): 84.8 - UNC (2013): 72.9, decided by less then 5 pts 3 times (15.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
2005 was just too good. Only three close games in the 20 simulated contests and it stands to reason those were the three 2013 wins. 2005 won 17 times and clocked 2013 by 20 or more four times as Roy Williams' first national title team rolls into the second round.
#4 2011 68% VS #5 1988 32%
GameSim Results
UNC (2011) has won 6 times (30.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (1988) has won 14 times (70.0%), won by 20+ pts 2 times (10.0%)
The average score is UNC (2011): 71.5 - UNC (1988): 78.4, decided by less then 5 pts 6 times (30.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 1 times (5.0%)
The surprise here is the 1988 team winning 14 times in the simulations. This was a 4-5 game so it could really swing either way but 14 wins by the five seed does seem a bit off, especially 1988 enjoying an almost seven point advantage in average score. The poll vote broke for 2011, perhaps based on recency.
#2 1998 97% vs #7 2000 3%
GameSim Results
UNC (1998) has won 18 times (90.0%), won by 20+ pts 4 times (20.0%)
UNC (2000) has won 2 times (10.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1998): 79.0 - UNC (2000): 68.1, decided by less then 5 pts 2 times (10.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 1 times (5.0%)
1998 flexing some serious muscle here in the simulations by crushing the 2000 team with 18 wins out of 20. The polling followed suit with 97% going for the Antawn Jamison led Tar Heels.
#3 1991 89% vs #6 2001 11%
GameSim Results
UNC (1991) has won 11 times (55.0%), won by 20+ pts 2 times (10.0%)
UNC (2001) has won 9 times (45.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1991): 79.2 - UNC (2001): 77.0, decided by less then 5 pts 5 times (25.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
The poll vote called this an easy win for 1991 while the simulation had it a bit closer. 1991 still wins on average score and 11 out of 20 games with a pair of blowouts.
After the first round, here is what thinks looks like. Second round play opens tomorrow where things really get interesting.
