One half of the bracket has finished the second round with one upset and the much anticipated 1982 vs 1984 match-up ready to roll in the regional final. Here are the poll results and simulation results each match-up 20 times thanks to our friends SCACC Hoops' GameSim
#1 1982 82% #4 1994 18%
GameSim Results
UNC (1982) has won 5 times (25.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
UNC (1994) has won 15 times (75.0%), won by 20+ pts 3 times (15.0%)
The average score is UNC (1982): 67.7 - UNC (1994): 75.7, decided by less then 5 pts 5 times (25.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
The simulation really liked 1994 giving them a 15-5 edge and three wins by 20 or more. The way these results broke you have to wonder if the simulation leaned heavily on three point shooting and depth. The poll vote broke for 1982 so the #1 overall seed advances.
#2 1984 98% #3 1987 2%
GameSim Results
UNC (1984) has won 12 times (60.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (1987) has won 8 times (40.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
The average score is UNC (1984): 83.8 - UNC (1987): 81.7, decided by less then 5 pts 3 times (15.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
The poll vote was overwhelming even if the simulation was a tad closer than expected. So far 1984 looks like the team to beat on this side of the bracket, especially with what has transpired in the Tin Can regional.
#4 2012 58% #1 1993 42%
GameSim Results
UNC (1993) has won 11 times (55.0%), won by 20+ pts 3 times (15.0%)
UNC (2012) has won 9 times (45.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1993): 79.5 - UNC (2012): 74.9, decided by less then 5 pts 5 times (25.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
And here is the first upset of the tournament with 58% of the vote breaking for 2012 based on the premise that the talent level would be too much for 1993 to handle. The simulation gave 1993 an 11-9 edge with three wins by 20 or more points which is a tad surprising. In some respects this is a tough match-up to figure out. 1993 won via toughness and defense. They had a focus and ability to execute 2012 lacked at times. That being said, both 2012 and 1993 had one thing in common. Both teams lost a regular season game by 26 points or more.
#2 2008 91% #3 2007 9%
GameSim Results
UNC (2008) has won 8 times (40.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (2007) has won 12 times (60.0%), won by 20+ pts 3 times (15.0%)
The average score is UNC (2008): 76.4 - UNC (2007): 82.1, decided by less then 5 pts 7 times (35.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
2008 like 1984 is rolling through the regional this time collecting 91% of the vote. Yet the simulation spit out another weird result with 2007 winning 12 out of 20 and collecting three blowout wins. This result is a bit perplexing. While 2007 was a solid defensive team the overall inconsistency and inability to close out games would seemingly tip it in 2008's favor. The only explanation is Brandan Wright and Reyshawn Terry made a difference in the overall calculation.
This week is the other half of the bracket which will set the stage for the regional finals.
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