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THB Tournament Regional Final Results

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Onto the Final Four. as the regional finals played out pretty much according to expectation.  Here are the poll results and simulation results each match-up 20 times thanks to our friends SCACC Hoops' GameSim

#2 1984 58% #1 1982 42%

GameSim Results

UNC (1982) has won 8 times (40.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
UNC (1984) has won 12 times (60.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
The average score is UNC (1982): 65.0 - UNC (1984): 68.8, decided by less than 5 pts 6 times (30.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 2 times (10.0%)

The simulation agree with the vote, though the vote was close. 1984 vs 1982 is an even match-up. In fact you could argue it should have been a Final Four game. It isn't too outlandish to consider that 1984 could have swapped places with 1993 thus leave 1982 with a more doable road to the Final Four. Instead the NCAA champs fall short against 1982 version 2.0.


#2 2008 88% #4 2012 12%

GameSim Results

UNC (2008) has won 14 times (70.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (2012) has won 6 times (30.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
The average score is UNC (2008): 80.1 - UNC (2012): 76.0, decided by less than 5 pts 8 times (40.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)

The poll vote and simulation speak to dominance by 2008 and rightfully so. 2012 was a good team but 2008 was a well-oiled machine with a national player of the year. It might be surprising it was even this close.


#1 2009 93% #2 1995 7%

GameSim Results

UNC (2009) has won 11 times (55.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (1995) has won 9 times (45.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
The average score is UNC (2009): 84.4 - UNC (1995): 83.9, decided by less than 5 pts 4 times (20.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)

The poll outcome might indicate some recency creeping in and the way we tend to view national title teams versus ones that came up short. The simulation is probably closer to the mark. Just  a scan 0.5 points separate these two. 


#1 2005 59% #2 1998 41%

GameSim Results

UNC (2005) has won 10 times (50.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (1998) has won 10 times (50.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
The average score is UNC (2005): 80.3 - UNC (1998): 79.5, decided by less than 5 pts 6 times (30.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)

2005 wins the poll vote while the simulation called it right down the middle. That makes sense given the talent levels of both teams. 2005's depth wins out at the end of the day but like any good 1 vs 2 regional final it would be close.

The Final Four is upon us.

#2 1984 vs #2 2008

#1 2009 vs #1 2005

Yes, the vaunted 2005 vs 2009 match-up would definitely be your late game in the Final Four with the appetizer being 1984 vs 2008. The three Roy Williams' era teams any sane person would rank 1,2,3 are in the Final Four along with Dean Smith's 1984 juggernaut. Again, the way the brackets shook out probably denied us 1982 vs 1984 on one side and the 2005 vs 2009 on the other. As it stands, 1984 will need to get it done for all the Dean Smith teams.