The regional finals are now set with 2005 and 2009 one step closer to an epic showdown. Oh and 1998 and 1995 are still around too. Here are the poll results and simulation results each match-up 20 times thanks to our friends SCACC Hoops' GameSim
#1 2009 98% #4 1986 2%
GameSim Results
UNC (2009) has won 9 times (45.0%), won by 20+ pts 1 times (5.0%)
UNC (1986) has won 11 times (55.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (2009): 80.3 - UNC (1986): 79.9, decided by less then 5 pts 6 times (30.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 1 times (5.0%)
The simulation clearly had 1986 as 2009's LSU in this tournament and why not? 1986 has a legitimate point guard in Kenny Smith and a center who was the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. Brad Daugherty ended up being a very good NBA player despite having his career cut short by injury. It isn't outlandish to think 1986 could hang with 2009 given those factors. The poll vote went overwhelmingly for 2009.
#2 1995 65% #3 1997 35%
GameSim Results
UNC (1995) has won 13 times (65.0%), won by 20+ pts 3 times (15.0%)
UNC (1997) has won 7 times (35.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1995): 81.8 - UNC (1997): 75.7, decided by less then 5 pts 5 times (25.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
The poll vote and the simulations are perfect reflections of each other. 1995 took three wins by 20+ points and held an overall lead in the average score by six points. Not a real surprise 1995 advances.
#1 2005 87% #4 2011 13%
GameSim Results
UNC (2005) has won 13 times (65.0%), won by 20+ pts 3 times (15.0%)
UNC (2011) has won 7 times (35.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (2005): 79.8 - UNC (2011): 74.1, decided by less then 5 pts 7 times (35.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
The simulation looks pretty close to the mark. 2011 had plenty of talent and while it stands to reason they might win a few against the 2005 champs. The poll vote was more inclined towards 2005.
#2 1998 64% #3 1991 36%
GameSim Results
UNC (1998) has won 13 times (65.0%), won by 20+ pts 2 times (10.0%)
UNC (1991) has won 7 times (35.0%), won by 20+ pts 0 times (0.0%)
The average score is UNC (1998): 80.9 - UNC (1991): 75.5, decided by less then 5 pts 6 times (30.0%)
The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0%)
Another 13-7 series in in the 20 game set. Again this seems to fall right on the mark given what we know about these two teams. 1998 would certain win the lion's share of the games but 1991's depth and cohesiveness as a team would keep them around most games.
With two rounds in the books the regional finals are now set. The match-ups are not real but they are spectacular.
