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Tale of the Tape: UNC vs Florida State

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Heels vs Noles

North Carolina Florida State
Record 15-4 10-9
ACC Record 5-1 2-4
KenPom Rank 7th 140th
Points per game 79.4 68.7
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 114.3(17th) 100.6(187th)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 90.8(19th) 98.7(126th)
Tempo(Rank) 70.1(18th) 68.3(50th)
Offensive eFG% 50.0% 50.1%
Defensive eFG% 42.2% 47.4%
Field Goal % 46.3% 46.5%
3P FG% 32.0% 26.7%
FT% 69.8% 66.0%
Offensive Reb Rate 43.7% 32.0%
Defensive Reb Rate 68.4% 69.3%
TO Rate 18.4% 20.5%
FT Rate 37.9% 48.2%

FSU is the third opponent in as many games for UNC that is ranked outside the KenPom top 100 and the fourth in a series of imminently winnable games for the Tar Heels.

The Seminoles have struggled shooting threes hitting just 26.7% on the season. That number has improved to 31% in ACC play however the strength of FSU's offense is in on the interior. Given the Seminoles' size it isn't surprising FSU is shooting 53% from two however in ACC play that number has dropped to 47%.

One area where FSU's size doesn't nearly have the impact one would think is on the boards. FSU is a fair to middling rebounding team ranked 149th in ORB% at 32.0 while pulling down 69.3% on the defensive end. FSU's ORB% is slightly improved in ACC play while the DRB% has dropped off over 3%. UNC's rebounding on both ends has been very good in ACC play. Despite an overall DRB% of 69.8 in 19 games, UNC's six league games has the Tar Heels leading the ACC with a DRB% of 73.2 and an ORB% of 42.0 which is just below the season average.

Another number that could work in UNC's favors is FSU's 20.5% turnover rate. In ACC play that number has improved to 18.7% which is still just 14th among conference teams. The Seminoles don't force many turnovers either having turned ACC opponents over just 12.7% of their possessions and 18.3% for the season. UNC has struggled at times with turnovers so facing a team that doesn't force them will help to some extent but not when it comes to propensity for what Roy Williams has called "dumb plays."