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Tale of the Tape: UNC vs Louisville

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Heels vs Cards

North Carolina Louisville
Record 11-4 14-1
ACC Record 1-1 2-0
KenPom Rank 11th 9th
Points per game 80.1 73.7
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 111.4(19th) 105.7(71st)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 89.5(10th) 84.5(2nd)
Tempo(Rank) 70.7(15th) 68.2(60th)
Offensive eFG% 49.0% 48.1%
Defensive eFG% 40.7% 40.5%
Field Goal % 45.3% 43.0%
3P FG% 30.5% 29.5%
FT% 70.0% 65.4%
Offensive Reb Rate 44.9% 37.7%
Defensive Reb Rate 67.7% 69.8%
TO Rate 18.1% 18.6%
FT Rate 39.7% 45.0%

This will be a match-up of two very good defensive teams. Louisville is second nationally in offensive efficiency while UNC is 10th. On paper this could be an issue for UNC"s somewhat inconsistent offense except for the fact the Cardinals offense is even less efficient than UNC's.

However the real number to watch here is Louisville's defensive turnover rate. Louisville plays an aggressive style of defense, They Cardinals like to press full court which has led opponents to turn the ball over 26.1% of the time which is fourth nationally. UNC's TO% of 18.1 which is above average but there have been games this season where UNC has been very sloppy with the ball. Louisville struggles at bit shooting the ball hitting just 43% of all shots, 29.5% from thee and 65% at the line. If UNC gives them free possessions via turnovers, the Cardinals can overcome poor shooting.

UNC continues to improve on defensive rebounding with the DRB% creeping up to 67.7. The offensive rebounding rate if 2nd nationally at 44.9. The Cardinals have the size to test UNC in this respect, especially the play of Montrezl Harrell who is a solid rebounder on both ends, is a capable shot blocker and a freak athlete in general.

The numbers indicate this is a fairly evenly matched pair of teams in a game UNC needs to win.