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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Northern Iowa

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Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Tar Heels vs Panthers

North Carolina Northern Iowa
Record 3-0 1-1
Conference ACC MVC
KenPom Rank #4 #66
Points per game 87.0 74.0
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 114.9(4th) 105.5(81st)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 93.1(16th) 97.0(69th)
Tempo(Rank) 74.8(35th) 68.4(331st)
Offensive eFG% 54.9% 58.8%
Defensive eFG% 45.7% 48.0%
Field Goal % 50.8% 50.0%
2P FG% 55.0% 60.0%
3P FG% 36.4% 38.3%
FT% 63.5% 80.0%
Offensive Reb Rate 37.4% 15.8%
Defensive Reb Rate 76.8% 70.6%
TO Rate 14.2% 19.9%
FT Rate 37.9% 34.3%
3PA% 22.6% 46.1%


And the tale of the tape is back for 2016 though right now with entirely too small sample sizes. UNC has three games under the belt while Northern Iowa it's just two. The trends may or may not hold up but this is where both teams are right now early in the season.

UNC's numbers are largely where one would expect them to be, maybe even a little better given Marcus Paige has yet to play a game this season. The absence of Paige is keenly felt in the three point shooting which will probably end up being slightly better than that. Justin Jackson being 0-9 from three isn't helping matters. Assuming he can get it going at some point while getting Paige and his 40% shooting touch from behind the arc healthy, that should go up.

One striking number is the offensive rebounding total which is down a bit from last season. 37.4% is a tad low for largely the same personnel as last season save one notable change, J.P. Tokoto left for the NBA. His replacement, Theo Pinson is only grabbing 2.5% of available offensive rebounds. Tokoto was over 6% there. Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks have compensated some on the offensive glass but Pinson and Jackson both aren't grabbing offensive boards at the same rate as Jackson and Tokoto did last season.

Northern Iowa is two games into the season so any potential trends here might be short lived. One that might not be is 3PA/FGA. 46.1% of the Panthers overall FG attempts have been threes. Northern Iowa is hitting 38.3% on threes thanks to 40% better shooting by Aarias Austin and Matt Bohannon.This will be an area of concern for reasons everyone is painfully aware of at this point.

Northern Iowa is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, doesn't really get to the line much(34.3% free throw rate) and  turns the ball over at a rate of nearly 20%. UNC can exploit these areas and if the Tar Heels can find a way to keep the perimeter shooters in check, UNC should be able to validate on the court what we see on paper.