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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Appalachian State

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Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Heels vs Mountaineers

North Carolina Appalachian State
Record 9-2 2-8
Conference ACC Sun Belt
KenPom Rank #9 #313
Points per game 85.6 68.3
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 118.9(2nd) 110.4(330th)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 96.4(50th) 98.3(254th)
Tempo(Rank) 72.3(47th) 70.6(140th)
Offensive eFG% 54.8% 47.7%
Defensive eFG% 49.6% 54.2%
Field Goal % 49.8% 40.4%
2P FG% 55.6% 41.2%
3P FG% 35.3% 39.1%
FT% 71.6% 68.5%
Offensive Reb Rate 35.7% 31.5%
Defensive Reb Rate 74.2% 64.1%
TO Rate 14.5% 22.0%
FT Rate 33.5% 39.2%
3PA% 28.5% 37.0%

Appalachian State is a bad team.

This is easily some of the worst overall numbers for a UNC opponent this season and it is not likely the Tar Heels will face a worse team statistically speaking down the road.  The only redeeming number for the Mountaineers is the three point shooting. Appalachian State hits 39% from three and has a 3PA% of 37.0. Given UNC has been giving up too many three point attempts and teams have been hitting them at a high rate, the Mountaineers have that going for them.

That is assuming Appalachian State can hold onto the basketball. The Mountaineers have a TO% of 22.0 and UNC is perfectly capable of exploiting that for easy transition baskets. Not that UNC will need extra help, the Mountaineers defensive efficiency of 110.4 and reasonable tempo of 70.6 means a full blown Biscuit Watch will be in effect at the Dean Smith Center Monday night.

The only reason to have some pause is the fact UNC is coming off  a win over UCLA on Saturday and looking at the Christmas break. The crowd likely won't be great so if UNC comes out with a sluggish effort, it wouldn't be surprising. At the same time, Marcus Paige was 2-9 on Saturday so the odds he has another bad shooting night is probably pretty low.

In short, UNC should dominate and go into the Christmas break with a 10-2 record.