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Tale of the Tape: UNC vs Virginia

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Heels vs Cavaliers

North Carolina Virginia
Record 17-5 19-1
ACC Record 7-2 7-1
KenPom Rank 11th 2nd
Points per game 79.5 68.0
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 114.7(16th) 117.1(8th)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 92.7(32nd) 85.7(3rd)
Tempo(Rank) 70.2(17th) 58.2(350th)
Offensive eFG% 50.5% 52.3%
Defensive eFG% 42.8% 40.7%
Field Goal % 46.6% 47.0%
3P FG% 33.0% 38.8%
FT% 69.1% 74.8%
Offensive Reb Rate 42.7% 36.4%
Defensive Reb Rate 68.1% 76.2%
TO Rate 18.6% 15.1%
FT Rate 38.7% 32.7%

For a second straight game UNC faces a team with a defensive efficiency under 90. The notable difference in facing Virginia is the Cavaliers have a highly efficient offense operating as the second slowest tempo in all of college basketball. That kind of tempo is less than ideal for the Tar Heels as is Virginia's pack line defense which has been extremely effective against all manner of styles. UNC's offense will be facing another tough test while the defense goes against a patience and well executed half court attack.

Virginia is fourth nationally in DRB% at 74.8. This is a clear strength on strength match-up with the Tar Heels second nationally in ORB% at 42.7. Operating on the assumption Virginia is going to force some missed shots, the Tar Heels getting offensive rebounds will be crucial.

Two numbers that should come as a relief to UNC in light of recent games is Virginia does not got to the free throw line often and is not a team that forces turnovers. Virginia is 299th in defensive TO% and is 280th in free throw rate. Unlike Louisville which has three players that draw five or more fouls per 40 minutes, Virginia has just one and only two drawing four or more fouls per 40 minutes.

The worst of UNC's play this season can be dropped into three categories: poor shooting, turnovers and fouls. Against Virginia, the shooting may be a problem but turnovers and fouls really shouldn't be unless, as Roy Williams has said, the Tar Heels keep making "dumb plays."