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Tale of the Tape: UNC vs NC State

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Heels vs Wolfpack, Part 2

North Carolina NC State
Record 19-8 16-11
ACC Record 9-5 7-7
KenPom Rank 15th 40th
Points per game 79.5 71.5
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 117.0(11th) 112.8(20th)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 96.2(64th) 99.4(122nd)
Tempo(Rank) 70.2(16th) 65.1(166th)
Offensive eFG% 51.1% 50.6%
Defensive eFG% 45.2% 45.5%
Field Goal % 47.5% 44.8%
3P FG% 33.1% 36.6%
FT% 69.0% 67.4%
Offensive Reb Rate 41.6% 34.0%
Defensive Reb Rate 69.1% 69.8%
TO Rate 17.8% 16.3%
FT Rate 37.2% 36.0%

Since the first meeting both teams have become more efficient on the offensive end and less so on the defensive side. In UNC's case, the Tar Heels' defensive efficiency has dropped from 90.5 a month ago to 96.2.  NCSU has slipped to 99.4 from 97.4. Defensive efficiency ratings tend to take a beating in league play and that is certainly the case here for both teams.

Even though NC State's offensive efficiency has improved, the Wolfpack have seen declines in eFG%, FG% and 3P%. The last number is especially interesting since the Wolfpack have gotten a much needed boost on the perimeter from Cat Barber. The sophomore guard had not been shooting threes well until late January when Barber hit 4-5 vs Georgia Tech and 4-8 against Wake Forest.

In the last meeting UNC posted an offensive efficiency of 117.9 which is second best against the Wolfpack this season. UNC's eFG% was 60.2% one of five times this season the Tar Heels have topped the 60% mark in eFG%. The recent upward trend for UNC's offense doesn't bode well for the Wolfpack, especially if the defense performs to expectation.

UNC's primary weakness in the first game was rebounding. The Tar Heels ORB% was just 32.1 while the DRB% was under 60. NC State won the rebounding battle and collected 18 offensive boards. NC State is one of the few times with the size and athleticism to give the Tar Heels trouble on the interior making that a critical factor in what should be a hotly contested game.