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KenPom's log5 Analysis of the NCAA Tournament

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So you're saying there's a chance!

Ken Pomeroy has released his full log5 analysis detailing the probabilities for teams to reach the various rounds of the NCAA Tournament. You can look at all the regions and the full list here.

This is what the West Region looks like.

Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
 2W  Arizona        97.7   81.2   65.8   42.1   21.7   13.9    7
 1W  Wisconsin      95.6   81.8   64.2   36.4   17.4   10.5    10
 4W  North Carolina 79.4   54.5   19.0    6.7    1.9    0.7    142
 3W  Baylor         77.2   49.4   15.3    5.9    1.7    0.6    159
10W  Ohio St.       55.8   11.1    5.5    1.7    0.4    0.1    842
 5W  Arkansas       73.3   31.6    7.9    2.0    0.4    0.1    1002
 6W  Xavier         55.4   24.8    5.6    1.6    0.3    0.09   1095
 7W  VCU            44.2    7.4    3.3    0.9    0.2    0.04   2267
 9W  Oklahoma St.   52.8    9.4    3.9    0.8    0.1    0.03   3084
11W  BYU            26.9   11.4    2.4    0.6    0.1    0.03   3131
 8W  Oregon         47.2    7.8    3.0    0.6    0.1    0.02   5093
11W  Mississippi    17.8    6.5    1.1    0.3    0.04   0.008  11837
14W  Georgia St.    22.8    7.9    1.0    0.18   0.02   0.003  29548
13W  Harvard        20.6    7.7    1.1    0.15   0.02   0.002  43616
12W  Wofford        26.7    6.1    0.7    0.09   0.008  0.0009 110472
16W  C. Carolina     4.4    1.0    0.2    0.01   0.0007 <.0001 1966903
15W  Texas Southern  2.3    0.2    0.02   0.001  <.0001 <.0001 44005517

UNC has a 1 in 142 chance of winning the title. KenPom is putting UNC's probability of making the Sweet Sixteen at 54% which is a perfectly reasonable win probability for the Tar Heels facing the #29 team in KenPom on a neutral floor. After that the numbers take a dip with UNC having just a 19% chance of making the Elite Eight and 6.7% of getting to Indianapolis. Given UNC's seeding and what we know, anything beyond the Sweet Sixteen will be beating the odds. Of course UNC did just that in Greensboro though the Heels were actually favored to beat Notre Dame and didn't.

Obviously Kentucky is the odds on favorite to win. The Wildcats has a 33% chance to taking the title. Kentucky is over 60% to advance to each round until the Final Four when the Wildcats have just a 46.1% chance of making the title game.

If you are wondering which team has the worst shot at winning the NCAA Tournament it is Hamption which has just a 0.3% chance of winning in the first round. Hamption's odds of winning the title? 1 in 932,647,504. No one is remotely that far out but that is probably because Hampton is in Kentucky's region and even if the Pirates get past Manhattan in the play-in game, it has no chance to beat the Wildcats.