UPDATE: Louisville lost to Notre Dame on Wednesday night.
With the win over Georgia Tech, UNC moves to 11-6 in ACC play and locks down no worse than 5th place in the ACC. The Tar Heels can still move up to the #4 seed but need some help.
Scenario #1: UNC beats Duke, Louisville loses to Notre Dame and Virginia. UNC would finish 12-6 and in sole possession of fourth place.
Scenario #2: UNC beats Duke, Louisville beats Notre Dame but loses to Virginia and Notre Dame beats Clemson. UNC and Louisville would be 12-6 but UNC would win the tiebreaker thanks to a better record vs Duke.
Scenario #3: UNC loses to Duke, Louisville loses to Notre Dame and Virginia and Pitt finishes behind NC State or Syracuse. Both teams would be 11-7 and winless against the top three teams in the ACC. The tiebreaker would fall to the next team in the standings. If Pittsburgh does not finish ahead of NC State or Syracuse then UNC would get the #4 seed based on a better record versus whichever of NC State or Syracuse finishes higher.
Scenario #1: Louisville beats Notre Dame and Virginia.
Scenario #2: UNC loses to Duke, Louisville goes 1-1 vs Notre Dame and Virginia. Louisville finishes 12-6 to UNC's 11-7 keeping the Tar Heels in fifth place.
Scenario #3: UNC beats Duke, Louisville loses to Notre Dame but beats Virginia and Notre Dame finishes 13-5 or 14-4. UNC and Louisville would be 12-6 but Louisville wins the tiebreaker thanks to a better record versus the first place Cavaliers.
Scenario #4: UNC beats Duke, Louisville beats Notre Dame but loses to Virginia and Notre Dame then loses to Clemson. UNC, Louisville and Notre Dame would be 12-6. Group record breaks the tie with Louisville finishing 2-1 in the group, Notre Dame 1-1 and UNC 1-2. Louisville would be the #3 seed, Notre Dame #4 and UNC #5.
Scenario #5: UNC loses to Duke, Louisville loses to Notre Dame and Virginia and Pittsburgh finishes higher than NC State or Syracuse. Louisville is the #4 seed thanks to a win over Pitt, UNC would be the #5.
At this point UNC is either going to be the #4 or #5 and Louisville will likely be the #4 of #5. Only one scenario has Louisville getting the #3 seed and dropping Notre Dame down and that involves the Irish losing to Clemson in South Bend on Jerian Grant's Senior Day. That's probably not happening.
That means UNC-Louisville III will likely to happen assuming UNC or Louisville wins the Wednesday game against the #12 vs #13 winner from Tuesday. Speaking of which, Boston College has locked up the #12 seed thanks to head-to-head wins over Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The #13 seed is still in the air. If Virginia Tech beats Miami to finish 3-15 and tied with the Yellow Jackets, the Hokies get the #13 seed via a win over the Jackets during the season. If Virginia Tech loses the Hokies will finish with a 2-16 mark in ACC play and be the #14 seed.
There is some debate whether UNC would be better off as the #5 seed to get a "warm-up" game in before facing what would most certainly be Louisville in the Thursday quarterfinals. The #5 seed has won three straight in the ACC Quarterfinals including Pitt knocking off UNC last season. If UNC does indeed end up with the #5 seed, the Heels will likely face either Boston College or Georgia Tech. The Eagles would be a tad scary given Olivier Hanlan's scoring prowess while UNC has outscored Georgia Tech by 61 points in two games.
For a full look at the rest of the ACC check out Patrick Stevens' breakdown here.