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ACC Tournament Odds and Probabilities

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Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

KenPom has released his log5 analysis which lays out each ACC team's probability of making it to the various stages of the ACC Tournament. UNC is looking at 87.0% to advance to the quarterfinals and 54.0 chance to make it to the semifinals. After that UNC is no better than 19.9% to advance to Saturday's title game and just 9.3% to win the whole event.

Here is how the rest of the league stacks up via KenPom.

                  Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 1 Virginia       100   100  92.8  66.7  42.0
 2 Duke           100   100  80.6  61.3  33.0
 5 N. Carolina    100  87.0  54.0  19.9   9.3
 3 Notre Dame     100   100  74.5  25.3   8.2
 4 Louisville     100   100  43.4  11.8   4.2
 7 N.C. State     100  72.8  16.7   8.3   2.2
 6 Miami FL       100  68.0  19.8   3.7   0.6
 8 Clemson        100  55.0   4.3   0.8   0.1
10 Pitt           100  27.2   2.7   0.8   0.1
11 Wake Forest   72.7  27.0   5.3   0.6   0.07
 9 Florida St.    100  45.0   2.9   0.5   0.06
13 Georgia Tech  55.2   7.7   1.6   0.2   0.02
12 Boston Coll.  44.8   5.2   0.9   0.08  0.01
14 Virginia Tech 27.3   5.0   0.4   0.02  0.001


According to KenPom it's Virginia and Duke's tournament to lose with both sporting 33% of better chances at the championship. UNC's 9.3% is actually third best with the Heels having a slightly better chance(19.9 vs 11.8) of winning in the semifinals versus what will likely be Virginia.

In terms of pure Vegas odds. UNC is at 13/2 to win the title which is the same as Notre Dame and Louisville but behind Virginia and Duke. Via Bovada.

Odds to Win the ACC Conference Tournament

Duke                                                    5/4
Virginia                                                 9/5
Louisville                                              13/2
North Carolina                                       13/2
Notre Dame                                          13/2
North Carolina State                              25/1
Miami (FL)                                             28/1
Pittsburgh                                             100/1
Clemson                                               200/1
Florida State                                         200/1
Boston College                                     500/1
Georgia Tech                                        500/1
Virginia Tech                                         500/1
Wake Forest                                         500/1

The equal odds for UNC, Louisville and Notre Dame basically states that those three have equal chances of winning in the semifinals. In short, Virginia and Duke are the likely Saturday match-up. As far as overall odds, Miami and NC State are the only other two teams remotely in the ballpark. Everyone else is 100/1 or worse.