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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Florida State

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Heels vs Noles

North Carolina Florida State
Record 13-2 10-3
ACC Record 2-0 0-1
KenPom Rank #13 #40
Points per game 86.5 81.5
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 119.2(3rd) 108.4(63rd)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 97.8(65th) 95.7(41st)
Tempo(Rank) 73.3(42nd) 73.4(37th)
Offensive eFG% 54.6% 51.9%
Defensive eFG% 49.5% 49.3%
Field Goal % 50.1% 46.9%
2P FG% 55.9% 53.9%
3P FG% 34.0% 31.6%
FT% 74.7% 72.4%
Offensive Reb Rate 38.5% 32.3%
Defensive Reb Rate 73.7% 74.8%
TO Rate 14.8% 18.1%
FT Rate 34.0% 40.4%
3PA% 26.5% 31.4%

Numbers wise this looks like it could be a fun basketball game. UNC and FSU both play at about 73 possessions on average so this game should be an up and down affair. That generally favors UNC. Under Roy Williams the Tar Heels are 252-61(.805) when the game reaches 70 possessions.  When the game is 73 possessions or more, UNC is 186-41(.819) and if the game gets really nuts and reaches 80 possessions, the Tar Heels are 60-9. In games less than 70 possessions, UNC is 93-42(.688). In other words, the faster the better for UNC.

Under normal circumstances there is some encouragement in the perimeter shooting numbers. As a team FSU is shooting just 31.6% from three, takes just 31.4% of all shots from beyond the arc accounting for just 22.4% of Seminole points. Of course, UNC has been dreadful against the three so far this season and also a bit unlucky. Opponents are taking 37.6% of all shots from three and hitting 38.5% of them. While UNC has left teams with plenty of open shots, it has felt like heavily guarded threes also go down not to mention long shots with the shot clock running down.

FSU's leading three point shooter is Malik Beasley hitting 39.3%(22-57). Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who put on a show in Chapel Hill last season is just 15-55(27.3%). Devon Bookert is 18-56(32.1%) and freshman Dwayne Bacon is 13-34(30.2%). In short, FSU has shooters albeit below average ones with the exception of Beasley.  Given what's been happening with the Tar Heels defensively, any one of these Seminoles could have a big night.

One concern for UNC is FSU's free throw rate. The Tar Heels have still be a tad foul prone and FSU gets the line at a rate of 40.4%. 7-3 center Boris Bojanvosky draws 5.7 fouls per 40 mins and hits 71.2% of his free throws. This will put pressure on the Tar Heel big men to guard a taller player without fouling. Beasley at 4.9 fouls drawn per game and 84% at the line is also a player to watch.