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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Louisville

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Heels vs Cards

North Carolina Louisville
Record 19-2 17-4
ACC Record 8-0 6-2
KenPom Rank #4 #8
Points per game 85.8 79.3
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 120.9(3rd) 111.8(35th)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 95.9(42nd) 90.5(6th)
Tempo(Rank) 73.3(36th) 68.0(239th)
Offensive eFG% 52.6% 53.6%
Defensive eFG% 48.9% 43.0%
Field Goal % 48.5% 48.5%
2P FG% 54.9% 53.0%
3P FG% 30.8% 36.8%
FT% 72.7% 68.8%
Offensive Reb Rate 39.2% 42.3%
Defensive Reb Rate 72.6% 71.6%
TO Rate 14.5% 17.8%
FT Rate 34.7% 35.7%
3PA% 26.6% 27.7%

This match-up is incredibly interesting. Louisville has the nation's 6th best defensive efficiency going against the nation's 3rd best offensive efficiency. Louisville is 24th in defensive TO% at 21.6 while UNC is 6th in TO% rate at 14.5%. Both teams shoot well inside the arc while Louisville shoots 36.8% from three versus UNC's 31%.Both teams rank in the top ten in offensive rebounding rate with UNC holding a slight edge on the defensive glass.

All of that is to say this will be a tough test for the Tar Heels. Louisville's, statistically speaking, is good enough to keep UNC's offense in check.  Louisville's offense is capable enough, especially with perimeter shooting, to score on UNC's good but lapse prone defense. With this game being at Louisville and the way the numbers stack up, a Cardinals win wouldn't be surprising.