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Earlier this week over on SB Nation, Ricky O'Donnell asked if UNC could win the national title with the current state of its perimeter shooting. The Tar Heels have been mired in a multiple game slump from beyond the arc with Marcus Paige recently solved troubles at the center. At present UNC is shooting 30.8% from three point range and just 26% in ACC play.
Since the advent of the three point shot in 1987, UNC's worst season from beyond the arc was 32.8 in 2011. In the almost 30 years since the three point shot was added to college basketball, UNC has been under 35% as a team just six times with this season looking very much like it could be #7.
The question of whether UNC can win a title with bad three point shooting is probably best answered with looking at what past national champions have done.
Year | Team | 3P% |
1987 | Indiana | 50.8 |
1988 | Kansas | 33.5 |
1989 | Michigan | 46.8 |
1990 | UNLV | 36.6 |
1991 | Duke | 38.3 |
1992 | Duke | 43.4 |
1993 | UNC | 37.2 |
1994 | Arkansas | 38.7 |
1995 | UCLA | 34.1 |
1996 | Kentucky | 39.7 |
1997 | Arizona | 37.0 |
1998 | Kentucky | 36.7 |
1999 | UConn | 34.4 |
2000 | Michigan St. | 37.8 |
2001 | Duke | 38.5 |
2002 | Maryland | 37.4 |
2003 | Syracuse | 34.4 |
2004 | UConn | 40.2 |
2005 | UNC | 40.3 |
2006 | Florida | 39.2 |
2007 | Florida | 40.9 |
2008 | Kansas | 39.7 |
2009 | UNC | 38.5 |
2010 | Duke | 38.5 |
2011 | UConn | 32.9 |
2012 | Kentucky | 37.8 |
2013 | Louisville | 33.3 |
2014 | UConn | 38.7 |
2015 | Duke | 38.7 |
The bad news first. The lowest 3P% for a national champion in the history of the shot is UConn's 32.9% in 2011 followed by Louisville at 33.3% in 2013 and Kansas at 33.5% in 1988. Also of note is the fact there haven't been many NCAA champions who were even mediocre from three. During the KenPom era, the average 3P% has hovered around 34%. On this list only six teams have been worse than what is generally considered average three point shooting.
The good news is there is still plenty of season left to play. There exists the possibility UNC can find a groove from three point range much like the Tar Heels did at the end of last season. At this point that is what really matters where the three point shooting is concerned. As long as the shots are falling at the right time, what has happened so far will be inconsequential.