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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Providence

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Heels vs Friars

North Carolina Providence
Conference ACC Big East
Record 29-6 24-10
Conference Record 14-4 10-8
NCAA Record 1-0 1-0
KenPom Rank #3 #47
Points per game 82.3 73.9
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 119.5(6th) 108.0(92nd)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 94.1(15th) 95.8(27th)
Tempo(Rank) 72.0(46th) 69.1(154th)
Offensive eFG% 51.9% 48.1%
Defensive eFG% 47.3% 49.1%
Field Goal % 47.7% 42.1%
2P FG% 53.6% 47.9%
3P FG% 31.5% 32.3%
FT% 73.8% 72.8%
Offensive Reb Rate 39.7% 30.6%
Defensive Reb Rate 69.9% 70.1%
TO Rate 15.3% 16.1%
FT Rate 32.0% 37.2%
3PA% 26.7% 37.0%

What jumps out immediately about Providence's numbers is the poor shooting percentages and a almost comparable defensive efficiency. Starting with the latter, the defensive efficiency is 95.8 with the 42nd best defensive turnover rate at 20.6 and the 54th ranked 3P% defense at 32.4. The problem for the Friars is those statistical areas of strength do not play well against UNC. The Tar Heels do not turn the ball over nor do the Tar Heels rely on three point shooting. The Friars are also not a good rebounding team which favors UNC nor is Providence a particular deep team.

The danger for UNC doesn't lie in the numbers but rather the Friars having two players who are more than capable of putting together a big game. Ben Betil face off against Brice Johnson in the post though Bentil can play out on the perimeter making this a tougher match-up for Johnson defensively.  Bentil draws 6.5 fouls per 40 minutes with a free throw rate of nearly 50%. Keeping him off the line where he shoots 79% will be critical. Kris Dunn started the season with player of the year buzz. It didn't work out quite that well but his 16 points and 10 rebounds including a three to tie the game late versus USC on Thursday shows this is a player that can still make the big plays. That means Dunn will likely get acquainted with Marcus Paige.