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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Indiana

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Heels vs Hoosiers

North Carolina Indiana
Conference ACC B1G
Record 30-6 27-7
Conference Record 14-4 15-3
NCAA Record 2-0 2-0
KenPom Rank #3 #13
Points per game 82.4 82.5
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 120.1(5th) 118.9(8th)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 93.6(11th) 98.0(55th)
Tempo(Rank) 72.0(48th) 69.2(152nd)
Offensive eFG% 52.0% 58.9%
Defensive eFG% 47.2% 49.4%
Field Goal % 47.8% 50.5%
2P FG% 53.8% 56.6%
3P FG% 31.4% 41.6%
FT% 74.2% 72.5%
Offensive Reb Rate 39.9% 37.1%
Defensive Reb Rate 70.1% 71.2%
TO Rate 15.4% 19.6%
FT Rate 32.1% 33.6%
3PA% 26.6% 40.5%

Second coming of Notre Dame and Duke?

On paper, Indiana does a lot of things well that could be problematic for UNC. They shoot threes well and take then in bunches with a 3PA% of 40.5 and a 3P% of 41.5. 35.5% of Hoosier points come via the three point shot which is 37th nationally.  That makes Indiana more similar to Duke in that respect. The notable difference between facing Hoosiers and the Blue Devils is Indiana can match UNC's on the glass. Indiana rebounds on the offensive end at a rate of 37.1% and over 71% on the defensive end. A team that can shoot threes and grab offensive rebounds is particularly dangerous sine those rebounds can lead to kick outs for open three point shooters.

On the flip side, Indiana looks to play at a similar tempo. Teams that try to run with UNC often run into trouble since the Tar Heels are one of the best in the country at playing up-tempo. Also of note is Indiana is turnover prone. The Hoosiers turnover rate is 19.6% which is 273rd nationally. Turnovers can be key for UNC getting into transition and cutting into Indiana's overall efficiency.

The big picture look at the numbers reveal both teams are top ten offensive unit but UNC is much better on the defensive end. UNC has shown that it can shutdown teams with offensive efficiency ratings at 119 or better. The Heels have done in three times in March already holding Duke to an OE of 100.7, Notre Dame to 68.6 and Virginia to 97.8. If the Heels bring that kind of defensive effort, the offense should be able to do enough.