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Tale of the Tape: UNC-Duke

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

College Basketball Armageddon 2016, Part II

North Carolina Duke
Record 24-6 22-8
ACC Record 13-4 11-6
KenPom Rank #5 #17
Points per game 83.1 81.5
Adj. Off. Efficiency(Rank) 120.0(3rd) 119.8(4th)
Ad. Def. Efficiency(Rank) 96.2(40th) 99.7(92nd)
Tempo(Rank) 72.6(39th) 68.5(195th)
Offensive eFG% 52.3% 54.1%
Defensive eFG% 47.8% 49.2%
Field Goal % 48.1% 46.4%
2P FG% 54.1% 51.3%
3P FG% 31.6% 38.9%
FT% 73.1% 72.6%
Offensive Reb Rate 39.4% 34.4%
Defensive Reb Rate 69.9% 66.3%
TO Rate 15.3% 14.8%
FT Rate 32.5% 41.3%
3PA% 26.7% 39.2%

According to rivalry rules we should throw all these out, especially coming off the last game where much of it didn't really play out during the game.

The numbers slightly favor UNC but as has been the case this season, the Tar Heels tend to lose when they don't play at a level which validates those numbers. The Tar Heels should be able to control the boards on both ends but the real challenge comes in UNC limiting Duke on the free throw and three point lines. A good shooting night from the latter with a healthy free throw rate will do plenty to get the Duke offense rolling.

For UNC it's simple: Hit shots. The 31.4% from three and 29% in ACC play has been a huge issue but it also doesn't mean UNC can't or won't hit them in certain games. The interior offense was there in the last game even if UNC abandoned it late. The perimeter offense still must be on track for a balance offense that Duke will have trouble to defending.

Then again, it's UNC-Duke, the numbers probably won't matter.