Opening line: UNC +3
Current line (as of 1 PM 10/9): UNC +4
First impressions: This is a bit shocking. The Heels ARE playing at home, but they have yet to win in Kenan this season. They also suffered even more injuries in a game against Notre Dame that the defense fought tooth and nail to keep competitive. But in the end the offense has done the Heels no favors.
Why this is the line: I took a look at Virginia’s schedule thus far, and that helped my understanding of the line a little bit. Their four wins have come against William & Mary, UConn, Boise State, and Duke. Their loss is against Indiana. It’s not a shamefully weak schedule, but...their most impressive win would have to be against Boise or Duke.
On the Tar Heel side of things, it’s hard to imagine anything in the Notre Dame game that would lead people to believe the Heels will do any better against Virginia. Maybe Vegas really loved Myles Dorn’s two interceptions? I don’t know.
How the line could still move: Virginia saw a bit of early action, but not enough to nudge the line into the weird 4.5-6.5 territory. As we get closer and closer to gameday and as the betting public realizes that UNC pretty much has more injured scholarship players than healthy ones, it might eventually cross over into touchdown territory. Virginia isn’t dealing with any injuries or anything, so I don’t see the line heading back their way.
My advice: Something’s gotta give eventually, right? The Heels aren’t going winless at Kenan this year...right? If you want some trends, the Wahoos have gone 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 away games, and the Heels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games. Erm.
The money line on the Heels straight up winning is +165. Avoid the spread—the Heels are either getting blown out or winning outright. Believe.