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Opening line: UNC +17
Current line (as of 10 PM 10/20): UNC +16.5
First impressions: It’s honestly a bit shocking. I knew that UNC certainly weren’t going to be favored in this game, but for them to be underdogs by more than two touchdowns is astounding. The Heels followed a six-game skid with back-to-back wins, and the Wolfpack have followed a 6-1 start with a 1-3 nosedive. You would think momentum would mean at least a little bit for the Heels.
Why this is the line: Ah, but one of those back-to-back UNC wins was against Western Carolina (no disrespect to the Catamounts). And two of those NC State losses were to teams currently in the top ten of the College Football Playoff standings (Notre Dame and Clemson). So there is some logic for why the line is the way it is despite the fact that one of these teams is trending up and the other is trending down.
How the line could still move: Since the line was released Sunday morning, it’s hovered between +17 and +16.5. Bettors seem to like the value the Heels have considering they’re being spotted just over two scores. There aren’t really any injury concerns for either team, and after a four-touchdown performance against WCU, Nathan Elliott will surely be the starter for UNC’s finale. I don’t expect the line to get as low as two touchdowns, but don’t be surprised if it keeps falling.
My advice: If you took my advice for the Pitt game, congratulations on being three hundred dollars richer. I would suggest doing the same here. It’s the last week of the season and it’s a bowl game for UNC. Throw everything out the window. The UNC money line as of right now is +525. Even a small bet of $50 would be enough to net you a tidy $250 with some to spare. UNC football is about to go away until spring. Let’s send it off with a bang. Go Heels!