2016-2017 Freshman of the Year: Tony Bradley

As the highest rated player in UNC’s 2016 recruiting class, many fans had high hopes and dreams for Tony Bradley. Among some various corners of the internet there were some early, though uneducated, beliefs that he could even start alongside Isaiah Hicks. (If you were one of those fans who bought into this notion, shame on you). While that line of thinking was comical then, and even more laughable now, Tony Bradley’s first season with the Heels was an unmitigated success.

To be fair, he began the season like a thoroughbred out of the starting gate at the Kentucky Derby. His first six games saw him score in double figures. He tallied three double-doubles before Santa Claus delivered presents to boys and girls around the world. In 11 of the first 12 games, he saw 15 or more minutes of action. Bradley seemed to be exceeding any reasonable expectations that even the most optimistic UNC fans had before the season began.

He eventually slowed down, battling through a few injuries and the inevitable freshman wall. The concussion at Wake Forest was an unexpected obstacle. Normal learning curves that freshmen experience led to a few uneven performances. Eventually he’ll learn how to use his body, explode to the rim, and finish those dunks that seemed to bounce off the iron. However, for the most part, Tony Bradley did not play like a freshman for large portions of the season.

Consider these stats. His 14.6 mpg was only the eighth most on the team. Yet, his 7.1ppg was fifth best, and his 5.1 rpg ranked third on the Heels. Those numbers mean that per 40 minutes, Bradley would’ve averaged 19.5 points and 14.1 rebounds.

Additionally, with an ORtg of 129.1 (points scored per 100 possessions) and a DRtg of 97.6 (points allowed per 100 possessions), Bradley’s overall efficiency was +31.5. That was tied for first on the team, with Kennedy Meeks.

You can pick almost any team stat, and Tony Bradley’s name will be near the top. He was second in total offensive rebounds with 58, and led the team with an offensive rebounding percentage (ORB) of 18.7%. He shot 57.3% from the floor - good for second on the team behind Hicks’ 57.4%.

To put that in perspective, consider Kentucky’s Bam Adebayo. A possible first round pick this season and top-10 recruit last season, he "only" averaged 17.3 points and 10.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. His overall efficiency of +27.9 and his ORB% of 11.2 were both less than Bradley’s.

Or, you can compare those stats to either Marques Bolden and Chase Jeter, down the road in the Durham. Both are former 5-star, top-15, McDonald’s All-American recruits. This season they averaged a combined 4.1 ppg and 3.8 rpg. Their combined overall efficiency was.... -18.0. Their combined per 40 minutes averages were 16.3 ppg and 13.8 rpg. (Seriously. Why do big men continue to make annual pilgrimages to Duke?)

Similar arguments can be made when comparing Tony Bradley to Miles Bridges of Michigan State, Jonathan Isaac of Florida State, Zach Collins of Gonzaga, and Justin Patton of Creighton. Look at this table below. I compare some of the nation's top freshmen post players, with the exception of Chase Jeter who is a sophomore. Remember, Bradley's raw production is lower due to less minutes played.

Simply put, Tony Bradley didn’t just have a solid freshman season for the Tar Heels. He arguably had a better season than the vast majority of Power 5 freshman post players. At the very least, there is an argument to be made that his potential is certainly greater. He may not have played the same amounts of minutes, but his production on the court and potential to produce in the future measured up to almost any burgeoning lottery pick.

The only player on that list that truly challenges Bradley on efficiency and overall rebounding ability is Zach Collins. Any UNC fan should acknowledge that Collins is a legitimate player, but it's fair to wonder if those stats are slightly skewed due to playing in the weaker WCC. Bradley's offensive production slightly trails some of those players, but it's no secret that Tony's strengths are rebounding and defense. Nor was Bradley asked to carry much of the offensive load. With Meeks, Hicks, Berry, and Jackson rotating scoring duties, there weren't many buckets left to spread around the team.

This team obviously wasn’t going to win a championship without Kennedy Meeks’ defense or Justin Jackson’ growth and scoring. However, they also weren’t going to sniff the title without Tony Bradley providing pivotal, productive relief throughout the season.

Based on this year’s numbers, if he decides to come back to school, it’s fair to say the ceiling is the roof for his sophomore campaign.