There are some things that are extremely hard to deal with as a Tar Heel, whether that’s a player, coach, or fan. Some things can be rationalized as to why it happened. Others, like the game this past Saturday against NC State, can’t be rationalized and what you’re left with is trying to figure out how such an unexplainable phenomenon is deserved.
You might find yourself saying, “But it can be explained, UNC didn’t do X Y or Z well.” While that might be true, Allerik Freeman shooting 7-of-7 from three-point land is something that requires a higher power watching over you more than it requires UNC not playing defense well. To put this into perspective: Freeman only had 13 points against Pitt, a team that has yet to come up with a win in the ACC this year. He only made two of his six three-point attempts. Just two. The game this past Saturday wasn’t meant to be won by UNC, and it is what it is.
With all of that said, UNC still carries blame for a number of things that could’ve cheated fate, and this could spell trouble for the second matchup this Tuesday against Clemson. The Tigers managed to hold off Georgia Tech last night to improve their record to 6-3, and they look to exact revenge on a struggling Carolina team.
Let’s take a look at three things to keep an eye on doing Tuesday’s showdown in Littlejohn Coliseum.
Perimeter Defense
At this point in the season, there likely isn’t a horse that can be anymore dead than the one that is being beaten about UNC’s failure to defend the three. Allerik Freeman undoubtedly did something that requires both skill and a little bit of luck, but it also requires help from the other team. In addition, Torin Dorn went 4-for-7 from three to help the Pack achieve a 50% clip from distance. It’s more and more brutal whenever we see teams get hot like that this year, and there’s a good chance that we will only see more of it.
The good news is that in the first meeting between the two teams, Clemson only made 35.5% of their three-point attempts. Gabe DeVoe is the only player that shot at a high percentage from deep, but to say that is to serve as a warning that we may see him attempt to light it up in Littlejohn. If I’m any opposing team right now, the key to beat UNC is to spread the floor, make the defense help guard the ball-handler, move the ball until someone gets open, and drain your shots. Too often this year we’re seeing defenders too far from their man to disrupt the shot, defenders being late to their man, or failing to get their hands up in general. There’s a lot that goes into playing good perimeter defense, so much that there’s no one answer as to why UNC is so bad at it this year. That is also what makes it harder to find answers.
If you want easy answers, one of them is that Theo Pinson cannot get into foul trouble during this game. We’ve seen it happen a couple times now, and there’s no doubt that Theo picking up his fourth foul in the game against NC State was when the game ended. Theo may not be the best perimeter defender on the team, but he definitely has more good moments than bad on defense. It of course goes without saying that Kenny Williams also needs to stay out of foul trouble as well, as he has had some issues himself. If UNC can manage to play smart defense, maybe we won’t see another player have a career scoring night. Maybe Gabe DeVoe having a career night against Georgia Tech last night means the Heels will be spared? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Will Kenny Williams or Cameron Johnson rediscover their stroke?
The Heels shot an embarrassing 21.1% from three-point land against NC State Saturday, and a lot of that had to do with the struggles of their two best three-point shooters. Cameron Johnson and Kenny Williams combined shot 0-6 from three, providing further proof that some strange power was in the Dean Smith Center causing as much havoc as it possible could. The funny thing is that both players combined for a 53% clip from field goal range, with neither player’s individual efficiency dipping below 50%. Want to further the confusion? Luke Maye and Andrew Platek were the only Tar Heels to make three-pointers. Andrew. Platek. Let that one settle in.
The struggles of Kenny and Cam have been an ongoing issue since, well, the last game against Clemson. Since the last time they played the Tigers, both players have shot 3-24 from deep. Given that the purpose of the “death lineup” was to put their best shooters on the floor at once, this has become a serious problem for UNC. When they can’t regularly get the ball into the post and score, and they can’t get their best shooters to make shots, it is a recipe for disaster. Look for one of these two players to return to form, or if not, it will be a long night.
Road issues plague the Heels
The worst-kept secret about the ACC is that road games are extremely difficult. For the past seven years, UNC made road games look relatively easy in the sense that they have managed to stay above .500 despite the conference expansions and wacky schedules that tend to set most teams up to struggle. This year, UNC’s luck might have ran out.
Let’s preface the road struggles with this: so far, UNC has played Florida State, Virginia, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech on the road. It is easy to say that no place in the ACC is easy to play at on the road, but Virginia and Notre Dame alone have been extremely rough places for UNC to play in. Virginia Tech was perhaps the most surprising out of all of them, as the Hokies played with an energy that UNC didn’t even come close to matching, and assuredly their crowd providing more than enough hostile energy helped.
So far, UNC is 1-3 in their road games. Realistically, the record probably should be 0-4, because UNC managed to squeak out quite the miracle against Notre Dame thanks to the Irish committing an ill-advised foul against Berry and T.J. Gibbs’ last shot spinning out of the cylinder on the putback at the buzzer. It’s a harsh reality that the players and Roy Williams have to deal with, and it’s also a reality that needs to change.
Traveling to Clemson following a win against NC State would’ve been difficult enough, but traveling to Clemson after losing to the Pack and being on a two-game losing streak is nightmare fuel for Roy Williams. Despite losing Donte Grantham for the season, Clemson is still managing to hold everything together with the exception of losing to Virginia. UNC is going to have to play with the level of intensity that every other team they’ve played in the ACC so far has played with against them, but the issue is figuring out if they have it in them. Roy Williams has a tall task ahead of him to try and get his players to execute on the road. If he can’t do it this game, it’s hard to imagine it happening this season at all.