Bold indicates teams who have won their conference’s automatic bid, Italics notes a team that is comfortably in the tournament (not in the last eight in according to Lunardi).
ACC (8-10): Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse on the bubble. Virginia is a stone-cold lock for a 1, Duke for a 2, Carolina for a 2-3, and Clemson for a 5 with a chance to rise to the 3-4 line if they can beat Virginia and Carolina or Duke. Miami seems a lock for a very dangerous 6. State and Virginia Tech are easily in, in the 7-to-10 range. I personally think Louisville and Notre Dame present stronger cases to make the field than Florida State does, and think Syracuse is toast. The ACC will get 9, maybe 10.
SEC (7-8): Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Alabama. Alabama has a shot at regular-season champ Auburn on Friday, everyone else is fairly securely in. Arkansas is in the always-difficult-to-predict 6 to 9 range, depending on how they finish in the tournament.
Big XII (6-8): Only Iowa State is more or less eliminated. Kansas (1, lock), Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State. The Pokes beat Trae Young and Oklahoma in the 8/9 game, creating an interesting ‘content vs. production’ argument in the Sooner State. Oklahoma has absolutely collapsed at the finish line. Texas Tech edged Texas, and the Horns’ strong effort should keep them ahead of the cut line. Baylor had a non-competitive loss to WVU and I don’t see how an 18-14 team justifies a spot. Let’s call this league a 7-teamer at best. (Middle Tennessee loss referenced below doesn’t help the Baylor/Texas/OU/OSU group, either.)
Big East (6): Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler. Villanova (solidly on the 1-line with Xavier, regardless of how things go at MSG) ended up with a 24-point win against Marquette, likely ending Wojo’s slim hopes of making the final 68. The Duke coaching tree...stumbles along. Butler edged Seton Hall, 75-74, in the perfect Gus Johnson game. The lead changed hands three times in the final minute, and the Bulldogs are trending towards 7-8 while Seton Hall could be anywhere from a 5-7.
Big Ten (4, no real outside shot at 5): Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State. If everything breaks right, its possible you’ll see Nebraska or Penn State show up in the play-ins. With this tourney out of the way, Purdue looks like a solid 2, Michigan State a 2-3, Michigan a 3-4, and Ohio State a 4-6.
American (3-maybe 4): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston. Tulsa and Memphis both need help from the 4/5 game today, but the winner should get a shot at Cincinnati and could play its way in. Cincinnati seems to be a 2, Wichita is in as a perfectly comfortable throw at a dartboard between 4 and 7, and Houston is listed by Lunardi as a 7...but that seems high.
Pac-12 (2-3): Arizona, UCLA, USC. There’s a world in which the Pac-12 is a one-bid conference. A Power-5 league that has one team squarely in, and a team (Cal) that ranks worse in KenPom than Pitt? Yikes. USC won 61-48 against Oregon State, and I’m not staying up for UCLA results. If the clock hits 0:00 at 1:45AM eastern with the Bruins on the losing side, they should miss out for one of the many bubble teams.
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s. Gonzaga will land somewhere in the 4-5 range as an exceedingly dangerous team, and St. Mary’s will be criminally under-seeded. Lunardi currently has the Gaels as a 10.
A-10 (2): Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure. URI has been good for the first time, seemingly, since Lamar Odom was there. They’re a solid 8/9 regardless of what happens in D.C. The Bonnies are a 9 as of right now, but should probably win on Friday to secure a spot. Watch out for 3-seed Davidson, who could make a run and steal a bid from someone.
C-USA (1-2): Middle Tennessee is the 1, and was set as a 12-seed. They lost their opener on Thursday, but are still 24-7 and should get an at-large berth. The last team standing gets in.
America East: Vermont vs. UMBC, Saturday. Call it a 13-15 seed for the winner, as they’re the top 2 seeds.
Big Sky: Top seed Montana has reached the semifinals and will play UNC (Northern Colorado) on Friday. 10-seed Southern Utah upset #2 Idaho, so it is wide open for the Grizzlies.
Big South: Radford (probably a 14-16)
Big West: The league has four UC-somethings. UC-Davis is the top seed, UCSB is the 2, Irvine is the 3. My answer is this: THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA-SOMETHING will take this bid.
Colonial: Charleston (looking like a solid 14 by all useful measures)
Horizon: Wright State hey, they’re currently Carolina’s #15 seed! Bring it on.
Ivy: Harvard, Cornell, Penn, and Yale start a nice, tidy four-team tournament on Saturday.
MAAC: Iona, a school with a 21st-century win over Carolina, is looking like a 14-15.
MAC: Buffalo, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan are the top three seeds. The winner is going to be in the 12-14 range.
MEAC: The winner, presumably Hampton, will probably land in the play-in game. Let me jump on my soapbox right quick and yell at you: THE PLAY-IN GAMES SHOULD BE ALL AT-LARGE TEAMS.
Missouri Valley: Loyola (IL) is your champion and a comfortable 11-13. It seems this league is upside-down from normal years, as Northern Iowa, Valpo, and Missouri St.— all recent multi-appearance teams this decade— were in the bottom four of the conference.
Mountain West: If anyone besides Nevada wins, the league may send two teams. #2 Boise State went down late Thursday to Utah State, pardon my not waiting out the New Mexico/Wyoming game which tipped at 11:34 EST.
Northeast: LIU Brooklyn guaranteed 16 seed.
Ohio Valley: Murray State probably a 14 or 15.
Patriot: Bucknell currently showing as a 14.
Southern: UNC-Greensboro Wes Miller’s guys are currently a 14— and matched up with Michigan State, according to Lunardi.
Southland: Top seed Southeastern Louisiana is in the play-in game according to Lunardi, so it stands to reason that the winner will be there.
Summit: South Dakota State calling them as my Cinderella now. They’re probably a 13, with a little margin for error
Sun Belt: as of this post, there are eight teams vying for one spot, with no real overwhelming favorite.
SWAC: UAPB vs. Southern, Texas Southern vs. Prairie View. Don’t miss it on Friday/Saturday. The winner will get a nice 16-seed.
WAC: A few things: one, I do not recognize this league. Two, this is apparently where New Mexico State landed after being jettisoned from the Sun Belt. Three, the Aggies are the favorite, and are currently listed as a 12-seed. Please, explain this conference. Chicago State? Grand Canyon? Texas-Rio Grande Valley? Seattle? University of Missouri at Kansas City? This league makes no damn sense. ...I’m a WAC fan. (In actual news, Grand Canyon and Utah Valley won on Thursday and will play the semifinal in a 2-vs-3 game, and Seattle/UTRGV just teed off for the right to play NMSU.) WAC FEVER: CATCH IT.