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The hot streak came to an end in Week 6. The good news is we are North Carolina Tar Heels fans and witnessed an absolutely dominating performance on the field.
The three-and-out for Syracuse at the end of the first quarter was a sign of things to come. The Orange never sniffed a cover, and UNC was doing all it could to hit to the over by themselves until the reserves were put in during the second half.
J.J. Jones had two catches, but it was crowded out there with 11 different players with at least one reception. Again, good news for the Carolina fans. Not so much for the player prop bettor.
At least the Tar Heels continued their second quarter dominance, and we easily hit the first half spread, the only win of the day.
Despite coming back to earth a bit, we are still doing well on the season:
- Plus/Minus on $100 bets: $768.27
- Record: 14-7-1
In the group text threads during the week and at the tailgate before the game, there was that bye-week-letdown dread. I felt it, too, as seen by the pick of Syracuse to cover.
This week, there is an interesting dichotomy.
The Tar Heels are coming off, statistically speaking, one of their best conference wins in over a decade.
The Hurricanes are embarrassed after a coaching blunder led to an improbable loss.
Does Carolina get comfortable or build on their performance last week?
Does Miami take last week’s shame out on UNC, or do they get exposed in their biggest test of the season?
Carolina is on a four-game winning streak versus Miami. Three of the four Miami games in the Mack Brown 2.0 era were decided by exactly three points.
Here’s the prediction: that streak continues, and the winning UNC margin is three points.
That means we are taking Miami at +3.5.
The Tar Heels offense did its part last week in the points total. The Carolina defense did its part in shutting down the Syracuse offense with no regard to the points total.
In Miami’s two P5 games this season, one hit the over while the other went under the projected total.
This game is the lowest point total between these two teams since the Hurricanes were 18-point favorites in 2018.
Just to show some trends, UNC has gone U-O-U-O-U so far this season. You know what comes next.
But, once again, we will not doubt the Carolina offense and figure that Miami will have something to prove. Let’s take the over at 57.
As Shania Twain says, dance with the one that brought you.
Last week, our only hit was the first half spread.
This week, UNC is favored by 2.5 at the half. The value bet is to take Miami at -102, but we will not switch our dates once we get to the prom.
Carolina continues to perform in the second quarter, and I expect them to do the same Saturday night at Kenan. Time to hammer it.
In the same vein, there is some value in taking the UNC total team points at over 14.5 for the first half.
This bet would have hit in four of five games this season, and once again, we will rely on the home field advantage to spur a productive second quarter.
Week 7 Picks
Miami +3.5
Over 57
UNC team total points in first half: Over 14.5
Hammer: UNC first half spread: -2.5
Hedge: Miami ML at +150
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