Once again, we have another 1-3 week.
The North Carolina Tar Heels were down at the half for the first time this season, and the score at the mid-game intermission torpedoed two of our bets.
UNC’s offensive explosion and defensive shutdown in the third quarter changed the trajectory of the game and put us on the path to hitting the over. The lone bet that hit was cashed with Miami’s first score of the second half.
The final score of 41-31 made the game look a lot closer than it was, considering Carolina’s second half performance.
Below is the season update:
- Plus/Minus on $100 bets: $557.56
- Record: 15-10-1
Let’s put it out there: Carolina is the top ACC team and tied for seventh in the nation against the spread.
Through the first four weeks of the season, we hit all eight spread bets. We knew that Appalachian State would be closer than a 19-point game, but those two spread bets in that game were the only times against the Tar Heels.
Perhaps it was just years and years and years of conditioning that led to the picks and Syracuse and Miami covering the spread.
Head coach Mack Brown addressed it directly with his “poisoned cheese” story, and we have to start trusting this team rather than history.
This weekend against a lowly Virginia team, let’s trust the spread, even as it is the largest so far this season at 23 points.
Over 90 percent of the public is going with Carolina to cover. So let’s hammer it and ride the spread until we get bucked off.
Despite a slow start last week, the second quarter remains UNC’s most productive. If we are banking on Carolina starting on time, a two-touchdown advantage should be doable for this offense.
There are plus odds at -14, so let’s hope the Heels start on time on Saturday.
After Tez Walker’s breakout party last week, there will be even more attention on him than before. Nate McCollum is looking like the prime target for Drake Maye with double (triple?) coverage on Walker.
A touchdown reception for McCollum is at +115, and with the offense that is expected on Saturday, he should get some shots downfield.
If everything goes to plan, the reserves should get some playing time in the second half. One team prop bet caught my eye with value at -105: UVA total points in the second half at over 7.5.
Carolina took a breath late in the game against Miami. Yes, Virginia is no Miami, but the expectation is that the youngsters will be on the field.
Can the Hoos get a TD and a field goal in the second half? At -105, it is worth a shot.
Week 8 Picks
UNC First Half -14 at +105
Nate McCollum touchdown reception +115
UVA total points in the second half: over 7.5
Hammer: UNC -23