After convincing wins over Syracuse and Miami, we decided to trust this team to make a statement as a top-10 team and 23-point favorite at home against one-win Virginia.
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
Once again, the North Carolina Tar Heels proved that the face plant walking sober on level ground was inevitable.
In December, we will see if this will be one of the worst losses in 20 years. But for now, it is one of the most embarrassing.
Not to mention that this inexcusable loss puts us on a three-week losing streak. Bobby Dodd Stadium is no friend to the Tar Heels, and the risk of dropping below .500 on the season is real.
Virginia scored 17 after halftime to easily hit the over in their second half scoring. This was the only hit for last week and the selection of Nate McCollum for a touchdown reception was one of the worst jinx in betting history.
Below is the season update:
- Plus/Minus on $100 bets: $352.80
- Record: 16-13-1
Since we ignored history last week, let’s not make that mistake again this Saturday.
Since Georgia Tech joined the ACC in 1978-79, UNC is 7-14 in Atlanta, including eight straight losses from 1999 to 2013.
GT is on a two-gaming winning streak versus Carolina. In both games, the Jackets were double-digit dogs.
UNC is 0-7 record against the spread in their most recent seven games when they were favored by ten points or more.
I’m not quite ready to hit the GT moneyline, but at +11, the Yellow Jackets should cover. At -108, you get some value, too.
Based on the awful play calling last week, offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey has a lot of work to do to earn back the trust of the fan base and bettors.
Once again this week, Carolina faces a team that is abysmal against the run. In fact, Georgia Tech is second to last in FBS in run defense.
So, I reckon ol’ Chip will throw it a thousand times again.
The second road game for UNC comes during the last weekend of October. This, combined with the factors above, leads me to hammer the under on the highest O/U of the season so far for Carolina.
In the same vein, I’m taking under 31.5 for the first half O/U. The second quarter remains Carolina’s best quarter, but I’m more inclined to see movement in the score after some halftime adjustments.
The oddsmakers seem to agree, as this bet is at -115.
Let’s continue in the same line of thinking and look at team total points in the first half. Georgia Tech’s O/U is 13.5, and both are at -115, making this a toss-up. Let’s make it three for three on under bets this week.
This week, no player props. We cannot risk putting a hex on anyone.
Week 9 Picks
First Half O/U: U 31.5 at -115.
GT Total Team Points: U
Hammer: Under 64