After taking a break last week, the bets are back for the regular season finale.
Two weekends ago, the North Carolina Tar Heels won the game in the double-overtime thriller over Duke.
With the Blue Devils covering and each team scoring more than 20 points, we split the picks and ended up a few bucks in the black.
The hammer was Duke covering, and it was nice to finally get that hit.
Below is the season update:
- Plus/Minus on $100 bets: $193.97
- Record: 19-17-1
There are a lot of factors I do not like about this game:
- NC State is ranked in the Coaches Poll, while UNC fell out of all the rankings.
- For all the consequential calls last week, Carolina’s self-inflicted wounds and poor coaching were their demise.
- NC State has a great defense, and UNC has a great offense. NCSU’s offense is not that good, but UNC’s defense is much worse. Not to mention the way Brennan Armstrong has torched the Tar Heels in the past while on not-so-good teams.
- Oh yeah—the game is at 8:00 PM at Carter-Finley Stadium. StateFan will be well-oiled for this Saturday night matchup.
- And somehow, Carolina is still favored by 2.5 points.
Let me be clear: I want UNC to win. But I am here to provide betting analysis, take it or leave it. With this razor-thin margin and the lack of confidence in the defense to stop anyone, the advantageous bettor should take the State moneyline at +114 rather than for them to cover at -110.
You might as well take them to cover, too.
NCSU is favored to score first, and I think UNC will take some time to get their focus.
One of the best values on the board is Carolina with a 0.5 lead at the half. As of writing, it is at -102.
Last week was the first time all season UNC failed to score in the second quarter. Without much on the board that is intriguing, this is worth a bet simply because it is near even odds.
Week 13 Picks
NC State Cover +2.5
NC State First Score -120
UNC First Half Lead 0.5
Hammer: NC State ML +114