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UNC vs. Duke: Betting Lines, Odds, and Picks

Trying to keep our heads above water.

NCAA Football: Campbell at North Carolina Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

It just so happens that there was no action between the North Carolina Tar Heels and FCS Campbell with some sportsbooks last week.

Good. We needed a break.

The confounding losses versus Virginia and Georgia Tech have put us on the brink of going into the red on the season.

The defense did not show up against Tech, and there is only so much Drake Maye and Omarion Hampton can do.

Sports betting can be a grind, and we are nearly worn down to the bone.

Below is the season update:

  • Plus/Minus on $100 bets: $145.39
  • Record: 17-16-1

Let’s put this out here: any faith in the Tar Heel defense is gone.

From Duke’s perspective, it was better to be without Riley Leonard for a second consecutive week than for the first time after his brief return.

With freshman quarterbacks Henry Belin and Grayson Loftus both winning their first collegiate starts against the other two Big Four rivals, there is no reason to underestimate them.

Duke’s ground game remains a threat despite the recent roller coaster of performances. The Blue Devils ran the ball for over five yards a carry versus Florida State, then dropped to just 51 total yards against Louisville, and followed that up with 181 yards on the ground to beat Wake Forest with a final-play field goal winner.

Combining Duke’s defensive prowess and Carolina’s defensive ineptitude, this week’s hammer is the Blue Devils to cover the spread at 14.5.

The next bet follows the same logic. We’ve seen bad offenses put up points against UNC, but no one has completely stifled the Carolina offense yet.

The worst example of such was against Virginia. UVA was the worst rushing team in the ACC and managed to put up 228 yards against UNC. Even holding Carolina to 31 points matched the Tar Heels’ lowest-scoring total this season.

At plus odds, and needing to get put some money back in our pockets, each team scoring more than 20 seems like a solid game prop bet.

UNC has performed the best this season in the second and third quarters. The first and last quarters have been struggles, and the next two bets focus on Carolina’s slow starts.

The Tar Heels average just over seven points in the first quarter this season.

Duke is not a fast starting team either, but once again, we will focus on UNC’s defensive woes.

Duke covering at 3.5 after the first quarter is at +105. This margin is just a tick above even odds, making it a great play to get some return.

The next bet is where we start to dig deep to find some big hits.

Once again, we will follow the same logic. If the Blue Devils can hold a 7-0 after the first quarter, we can hit at +750.

It seems like we are down on the Tar Heels this week... which we are. Perhaps that will set us up for a much-needed Carolina ACC victory.

Week 11 Picks

Both Teams to Score +20: +135

First Quarter Duke +3.5: +105

Duke win First Quarter by 7+: +750

Hammer: Duke +14.5

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