Alright, let’s go ahead and talk about it.
Last week, we hammered the under at 58.5.
With three ticks left in the game, the North Carolina Tar Heels and Appalachian State Mountaineers were knotted at 27 as UNC lined up for a game-winning 39-yard field goal.
If that field goal had split the uprights, that would have been a 57 on the point total. We could have walked away from Week 2 without a losing bet.
But that did not happen.
The good news is we finished the week with $229.29 in winnings and a 2-1-1 record.
App State covered in both of our spread bets, and the scoreless first quarter gave us a push.
Below are the season totals:
- Plus/Minus on $100 bets: $379.11
- Record: 6-3-1
Minnesota travels to Chapel Hill on Saturday afternoon for the first matchup between these two programs.
The Golden Gophers are underdogs for the first time this season. The spread opened at -6.5 for UNC and has shifted one point to -7.5.
At +7.5, the odds are at -115. The bookmakers probably looked at the huge spread from last week, the return to Earth of the Carolina defense, and feel as though bettors will look to Minnesota to cover.
However, Minnesota has failed to cover in both of their games this season. Looking at the 2022 season, the Golden Gophers were 1-1 in games as underdogs, losing by an average margin of 10.5 in those games.
Let’s face it: Carolina is better than Nebraska and Eastern Michigan.
Minnesota hit a 47-yard field goal as time expired to beat an awful Cornhuskers team, and the Golden Gophers held a 10-6 halftime lead over a Mid-American Conference team.
This is not to say that Minnesota will not be competitive, but their offense is struggling, and it is hard to get a grip on their defense based on their first two opponents.
The cherry on top is Carolina at -7.5 has odds of -105, adding some value for bettors, so let’s hammer this one.
If you think UNC can cover at 7.5, here’s the best alternate spread on the board: UNC at -10. The point spread is still at minus odds at -8, but then moves into plus odds at -8.5. The biggest jump is from -9.5 to -10, going from +108 to +117.
This week will be a great test for this team. In the wake of a hard-fought win, how will each side of the ball respond?
The key this week will be the Carolina run defense. Minnesota is getting a lot more production out of their running game, and no doubt that the Gophers will be physical up front.
This game will not be a track meet. And that is why I’m leaning towards the under.
Here’s an interesting dichotomy about the O/U at 50: This is the highest total for Minnesota and the lowest total for Carolina.
Considering Minnesota has failed to hit the over in the first two games this season, the pressure is on UNC to hit the over.
At equal odds at -110, the public is taking the under at 64 percent. Let’s follow the public, put some belief in the defense, and take the under once again this week.
Sifting through the prop bets, here’s one that caught my attention: UNC total team points in the first half. There is some value at over 14.5 at -105. The average through two games is 13.5, and the recent shakiness of the kicker may give some pause to hitting that over.
But knowing the potential of this offense and the -105 odds, it is too good to pass up.
Week 3 Picks
Spread: UNC -7.5
Alternate Spread: UNC -10
UNC total team points in the first half: Over 14.5
Hammer: O/U: U 50
Hedge: Minnesota ML +245