What a week!
All four picks against Minnesota hit.
The 31-13 North Carolina Tar Heels victory in Week 3 covered the spread at -7.5, the alternate spread at -10, and hit the under.
Carolina took a 21-10 lead into the half, hitting the over on team total points in the first half.
The sweep last week doubled our profit margin on the year and put us in a great position as UNC heads north for its first true road game this season.
Below are the season totals:
- Plus/Minus on $100 bets: $770.50
- Record: 10-3-1
Saturday’s game at Pitt has a lot of jumbled information to untangle.
Since Pitt joined the ACC in 2013, Carolina holds a 7-2 record against the Panthers. In the first seven meetings, every game was decided by a touchdown or less.
Last year’s 42-24 UNC win at home was the first time the final spread was more than seven points in the conference history of this matchup.
As of now, last year’s Pitt team is better than this season’s iteration, and Carolina is better than the team that hosted the Panthers in late October.
The line opened at UNC -6.5 and has shifted to -7.5. If you were able to snag the spread at -6.5, that was a great move.
Despite the spread shifting towards a larger Carolina victory, 58 percent of bettors are taking Pitt to cover. It is reflected in the odds, as Pitt at +7.5 is at -112.
However, the Panthers have failed to cover their last five September home games at Acrisure Stadium. Like last year, Pitt is a team that finds itself in the second half of the season.
This change is good news for UNC bettors, as covering at -7.5 provides some value at -108. The team’s performance against a physical Minnesota team has me convinced that the spread is the hammer for this week.
Both alternate spread picks this season have hit, and once again, the best value comes at UNC -10 at +113.
The offensive game plan was not stubborn last week. UNC ran the ball just once during the third quarter. The offense is versatile enough to adapt to what the defense provides.
The biggest news this week from Pitt is that head coach Pat Narduzzi is sticking with struggling quarterback Phil Jurkovec.
Pitt is the worst passing team in the ACC, and their struggles in preventing hurries and pressures on the quarterback are a major concern.
Carolina faced a team last week with a struggling pass game, and the focus turned to the run.
The problem for Pitt is that their run attack ranks 12th out of 14th in the ACC.
The UNC defensive line is rolling eight players right now, and defensive coordinator Gene Chizik will continue to utilize this quality depth up front to keep players fresh.
Nearly 90 percent of the public is taking the under at 50 points, and I cannot disagree with the masses.
If the Carolina defense can limit the run like they have done in two of three games this season, the Panthers’ offense will struggle to generate points.
The best game prop on the board is a Carolina second-half spread of -4.5 at -108 odds. Based on the analysis above and the defensive performances in the second halves of the South Carolina and Minnesota games, UNC can hit. Not to mention there is a bit more value at these odds.
Week 4 Picks
Alternate Spread: UNC -10
O/U: U 50
UNC second-half spread: -4.5
Hammer: Spread: UNC -7.5
Hedge: Pitt ML +240