As a fan of the North Carolina Tar Heels, there is a lot to be happy about from the Week 1 win over South Carolina.
If you were a fan of the Heels and you dabble in some of the picks from last week, you are happily in plus money.
That is a great way to start the college football season.
Last Saturday, we hit on the UNC -2.5, UNC -3.5, U 64.5, and “No” both teams score in the 3rd quarter.
South Carolina did not get the longest touchdown, and Carolina did not lead at the end of the first quarter.
With a 4-2 record, a $100 bettor is up $449.82 heading into Week 2.
So, with some walking around money, let’s reinvest those winnings during the home opener for UNC.
The oddsmakers are heavily favoring Carolina in Saturday’s game versus Appalachian State. The spread opened at UNC -15 and currently stands at -19.
This is in stark contrast to the previous two contests between the teams. In 2019, App covered at +2.0, and last season, Carolina covered at +3.0.
A trend to consider is the ‘Neers have failed to cover in their last six games, including last week versus Gardner-Webb.
A surprising trend is that the public is favoring Carolina to cover by over 75 percent.
Even with these trends, I just do not think App State will come into Chapel Hill and lay an egg. I do not want to say this is a game where you throw the record book out the window, but this game matters a lot to both teams. It will be closer than the small sample from last week that the spread is based upon.
The oddsmakers are putting the Mountaineers at -112 odds at +19, and that has to be the play.
Conventional wisdom says you should bet on the alternate lines if you like the underdog. If we sell some points, the tasty odds are moving from +14.5 to +14.0 when the odds move from +129 to +140. There is no larger jump in odds between the half-point spreads on the board.
Let’s put this one on our bet slip just because we have some extra cash from the wins last week.
The over/under opened at 60.5, and has shrunk to 58.5. The uncertainty with the App State quarterback situation as to be a factor.
In the last six games against ranked teams, App has hit the under in each of those games.
As predicted last week, Carolina hit the under versus South Carolina. That makes five of six unders going back to last season.
Yes, the last two matchups hit the over. There is value at -108 odds on the under, and with the defensive performance last week and until Drake Maye starts to cook
Unlike the decision to zig where the oddsmakers and public zagged on the spread, the choice here is to follow the chalk. The under is the hammer.
Carolina is at -950 on the moneyline, so it is simply not a play this week.
Down in my gut, I think App State will come out of the gate with trickery and everything they have to make this a competitive game.
A quick start in Kenan for the Tar Heels would be fun for UNC fans, but the first quarter spread of App +6.5 at +110 looks like a competitive move.
Looking through the team and game props, there is nothing that sticks out as competitive or as a value.
Week 2 Picks
Spread: App +19
Alternate Spread: App +14
First Quarter Spread: App +6.5
Hammer: O/U: U 58.5
Hedge: Alternate Spread: UNC -21.5 (+117)