UNC Baseball: A Tar Heel Primer

Here at Tar Heel Blog, we’re in the process of rolling out regional previews for each team in the Chapel Hill, starting yesterday with a preview of UNC’s first opponent — Long Island University. As I thought about it, I realized we probably should also have one for the Diamond Heels themselves — not only because it looks like such content is pretty scarce out there for fans of LSU, Wofford, and LIU, but because plenty of UNC fans are going to be coming out to support their Heels in the postseason, because they love UNC, even though they might not be the biggest college baseball fans and might not have kept up with the team over the course of the regular season. We’ve probably told most of the story of this year’s Heels over the course of our weekly recaps and previews over the past few months, but that’s a lot to catch up on. So, from a sicko who watched most of UNC’s regular season games, I gift you this, a one-stop rundown of what has happened this season for UNC, what the team looks like, its strengths and weaknesses, and some things (and players) you might want to look out for.

Lineup

This year features Scott Forbes’ deepest and most effective hitting lineup since he became the head coach at UNC. Six out of the nine everyday starters hit better than .300 and seven have an OPS better than .950, which adds up to a team batting average of .311 that’s 18th in the nation, a slugging percentage of .546 that’s 13th, and a mark of 1.91 home runs per game that ranks 20th. Forbes has the luxury of basically alternating right-handed and left-handed hitters all the way down the lineup, which helps keep opposing bullpens off-balance and makes three-up, three-down innings a relative rarity for UNC. This edition of the Diamond Heels is also capable on the base paths, with 82 stolen bases this year on 91 attempts, though they haven’t been doing it as much in the later part of the season as they did in the first couple months of the season — it’d be cool to see that weapon brought back out for the Regional.

You’re probably familiar with the name Vance Honeycutt — the star center fielder is having his best season yet, with 22 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 1.118 OPS, all of which lead his team. He’s doing that while playing his typically excellent defense in center, which led to his earning a second consecutive ACC DPOY award — he’s got almost 14 defensive runs saved, leading all the nation’s outfielders.

Batting right behind him for most of the year has been Casey Cook, who’s really broken out this season into a complete hitter and earned an All-ACC First Team selection alongside Honeycutt. Cook leads the Heels in hits (76) and RBI (76) while slashing .345/.443/.645, and his power has really gone to the next level this season. He was a contact machine last year as well, but hit just 3 home runs all season — this year, he’s maintained or improved that level of contact while hitting 18 home runs, providing some needed lefty power to the Diamond Heels.

You’ll also want to look out for Parks Harber, who seems to make hard contact almost every time he’s at the plate and has 20 home runs to go with a .351 batting average that ranks 2nd on the team; Gavin Gallaher, the freshman who simply looks like a professional hitter at the plate and has kept two former starters on the bench because he’s got the team’s highest average; Luke Stevenson, the other source of lefty power for UNC with 13 home runs, many in clutch situations, to go with his team-leading 41 walks; and Anthony Donofrio, whose 7 home runs belie his power — 17 doubles and 6 triples both lead the team, to go with his 41 walks and 18/20 base-stealing mark.

If there’s a weakness in this UNC lineup, it’s that they strike out more than you’d expect. They’re middle of the pack in the country with 448 on the year, but among the nation’s top 20 teams in batting average, just 4 have struck out more. The Heels don’t take a lot of bad at-bats; they rank 14th in the nation in walks taken, but they do swing a lot, and kind of justifiably so when you’ve got the kind of power they do. Honeycutt exemplifies this; his strikeout rate led the ACC this year even as he was otherwise putting together an incredible season. It’s kind of common knowledge at this point that strikeouts aren’t as bad as conventional wisdom says they are, but, like a lot of analytical truisms, that’s a little less true in college where defense isn’t as reliable as in the bigs. For better and for worse, this is a batting lineup that is going to perform on its own terms, rather than through letting opposing defense determine what they can get away with.

Pitching

After bullpen struggles the past three seasons have spelled doom for UNC, it’s been awesome to see pitching become a strength for this year’s Heels. It’s even more incredible (I’ve said it several times before, but it bears repeating) with the knowledge that UNC is out two Friday starting arms in Jake Knapp and Folger Boaz. UNC’s 4.23 team ERA led the ACC and ranked 15th in the country, and down the stretch, the Diamond Heels’ arms have been as consistent as anybody’s. They’re led by Friday and Saturday starters Jason DeCaro and Shea Sprague, respectively. DeCaro is a freshman right-hander with a legitimate 4-pitch arsenal that he uses to keep hitters guessing and miss barrels. He boasts an ERA of 3.80 and a batting average against of .231 in a team-leading 73.1 innings pitched. His command is still a bit of a work in progress, as he has walked 34 batters (to 64 strikeouts), but his stuff is good enough that the free passes don’t hurt him too badly. The lefty Sprague is a junior transfer from Elon whose command is his calling card. His fastball doesn’t overpower, sitting 88-91, but with location, speed variation, and knowing when to play it off his devastating changeup, Sprague has been excellent since being moved to a starting role. In conference play, he put up an ERA of 3.92, and facing off against Chase Burns in the ACC Tournament, gave up 2 earned runs and kept his team in it even as the offense struck out 15 times in 6 innings.

In the bullpen, guys like Dalton Pence and Matthew Matthijs have been stalwarts for UNC with the two lowest WHIP numbers on the team: 1.14 for Pence and 1.18 for Matthijs. Both feature heavy fastballs that play faster than their low-mid 90s velocity. Matthijs, the righty who is usually first out of the bullpen, pairs that fastball with a cutter that runs the other way and gets a lot of swing-and-miss. Pence, meanwhile, is UNC’s main lefty weapon out of the pen and uses his heater to blow past hitters when he comes in for scenarios that need a stopper. His secondary pitches aren’t as noteworthy as that of his peers, but they haven’t really needed to be, as he’s got one of the highest strikeout rates in UNC’s staff and a 2.14 ERA that leads all regular arms. X-factors out of the pen for UNC include Connor Bovair and Ben Peterson, who have electric stuff but have had inconsistent years, though both had really good games as the regular season wound down.

While UNC has been really good at keeping opposing teams from scoring, they’re not a huge strikeout staff. Most of the regular arms have a K/9 number right around 9, with Pence’s 11.8 and Matt Poston’s 12.4 the exceptions. As a whole, the staff is wont to pitch more to contact than for strikeouts, and that can be dangerous against teams that make a lot of hard contact. They’ve made it work so far, especially with the help of a very good defense, but it tends to keep UNC fans on their toes a little.

Defense

Both in the outfield and up the middle, UNC has one of the best defenses in the country, anchored in both cases by Honeycutt. The UNC outfield is a no-fly zone all the way across, with Donofrio in right and Cook in left performing more than ably in support of their center fielder. Around the horn, the headliner is shortstop Colby Wilkerson, who shook off an error-filled start to the season and has fully justified his coach’s trust to keep him in the lineup, with his big arm and athleticism making hard plays routine and near-impossible plays regular. Alex Madera at second base is as steady as they come, and has been a huge reason that UNC has turned a lot more double plays this year than they did last time. Gavin Gallaher at third is reasonably steady, but you can tell he’s never played the position before as he’s prone to the semi-regular error. And Parks Harber has settled in at first base — while the position is kind of taken for granted at the pro level, defense at first is still a variable in college — with a safe glove and a willingness to step away from the plate to make plays.

Coaching/Overview

Scott Forbes has really gotten together this group, managing a lot of new faces, early turbulence in both the hitting lineup and the pitching rotation, and a tough road schedule, turning out one of the best teams in the country that is absolutely Omaha-caliber. His team has balance, both raking and pitching at near-elite levels, and has shown time and again that it is capable of both getting out to a big lead in a hurry and fighting back when facing a deficit. They’ve won in a variety of ways and have been near-unbeatable at home, and while they might not feature the kind of high-end statistical performers anywhere that other elite teams have, their consistent very-goodness makes them hard to beat. They’re deservedly hosting a regional and, even with one of the hottest teams in the country as their #2 seed, should be the favorite to get out of it.