Opening line: UNC +14.5
Current line (as of 1 PM 10/2): UNC +17
First impressions: The Tar Heels have officially reached “reeling” status since the Georgia Tech loss, and this point spread confirms that. So many people saw value in Notre Dame having to cover a two touchdown spread that the line shifted two and a half points in just 24 hours. Vegas has lost faith in the Heels, and so have the sharps.
That this game is at Kenan Memorial Stadium doesn’t seem to have any influence on the line, and in all fairness it shouldn’t. The Heels’ best performance of the season— and their only win—came in Virginia.
Why this is the line: I know I sound like a broken record, but that’s fine. Put the record on the injury report too. Everyone knows that the Heels have been utterly and absolutely devastated by the injury bug this year. The Heels admittedly were already a rebuilding team before injuries started hitting.
It’s gotten so bad that the idea of moving Brandon Harris to wide receiver so that he can still see playing time doesn’t sound entirely absurd. That plays into another reason why the line is so unfavorable to the Heels: Chazz Surratt is playing how you would expect a redshirt frosh quarterback to play. His flashes of hope are punctuated by reminders of his inexperience.
How the line could still move: It’s not outside the realm of possibility for this line to hit 20 points. If you throw out Notre Dame’s close 20-19 loss against Georgia in Week 2 (which looks better every time the Bulldogs win), Notre Dame’s closest margin of victory was 20 points at Michigan State. And the Heels are in free fall.
My advice: I’m always an advocate of staying away from sky-high lines. College football is just so wacky that anything can happen. Just a few weeks ago, Howard won a game outright in which they were 45-point underdogs. Honestly, if you think UNC can cover this spread, you should probably just go the full monty and say they’ll win the game outright. UNC’s money line is currently sitting at +600, which means that a bet of a hundo will win you six. If you have ANY faith in UNC, just go ahead and have ALL your faith in UNC.